Brazil: Lula Struts His Stuff

What happened: President Lula blasted allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro and called on the Chamber of Deputies to expel his son, Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro.

Why it matters: Surrounded by key allies at the PCdoB’s national congress, Lula called on left-leaning parties to run as many congressional candidates as possible, signaling his intention to run for re-election in 2026 but only if he believes his coalition can elect a majority to Congress.

What happens next: He underscored the importance of competing against the opposition through social media and among youth to undercut the Bolsonaro coalition’s capacity to dominate the electoral narrative.

On 16 October, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke at the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB)’s national congress in Brasilia, slamming “extreme” conservatives and urging the Brazilian left to rise to the occasion and win next year’s general elections. He also stated: "If I decide to run, it's not to run, it's to win these elections."

Surrounded by national leaders of the PCdoB, his own Workers Party (PT), the Brazilian Socialist Party and the Socialist and Liberty Party, Lula leaned into his fiery nationalist brand to set the stage for renewing his center-left electoral coalition. He urged his political allies to offer a political discourse that resonates with voters, especially in regions where his coalition lost in 2022, including the Center-West and South.

The president also cited conservatives’ dominance of social media platforms of digital networks, noting it as a decisive factor in elections and insisting that he and his political partners must “speak directly to the Brazilian people.”

With a little less than a year away from the elections, Lula is already in campaign mode, eager to galvanize the Brazilian left behind his leadership and presumptive presidential campaign. Following his modest climb in approval ratings after US President Donald Trump slapped punitive tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned Brazilian Supreme Court Justices, Lula wants to take advantage of the moment.

Lula also likely sees a crack in former President Jair Bolsonaro’s conservative nationalist movement and wants to further divide the opposition. First, Bolsonaro is prevented from seeking public office in 2026 after two violations of the electoral code and recent convictions on five counts related to a conspiracy to nullify the 2022 presidential election. The former president is under house arrest and a gag order, preventing him from openly speaking on the nation’s political matters.

Second, Jair’s son, Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, has set up shop in Washington, lobbying the White House to punish the administration and Brazilian Supreme Court for convicting his father and several of his co-conspirators. Eduardo claimed credit for Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50% in late July and the US Treasury Department’s sanctioning of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes under the Magnitsky Act.

Consequently, Attorney General Paulo Gonet has launched an investigation into Eduardo’s activities, which could result in prosecution. More importantly, his action has split the opposition, with some in support and others blaming Eduardo for the economic fallout.

Third, following Eduardo’s lobbying in Washington, several leading allies of the Bolsonaro clan balked. Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio Freitas, who had been the opposition’s frontrunner candidate prior to the tariffs and has Jair’s support, stared into the headlights without voicing a definitive position on Eduardo’s actions. His wavering on such a critical political question with obvious economic ramifications drove down his approval in the polls, leaving the opposition without a clear-cut candidate to beat Lula in next year’s election.

In response, Lula has scaled up his criticism of the Brazilian right and called on Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta to expel Eduardo from the lower chamber. Sensing an opportunity, the president told the 600 attendees at the PCdoB’s congress that the left should run as many congressional candidates as possible in 2026. This would open the door to greater competition between the coalition’s parties, but would ensure that as many allies are elected to Congress as possible.

Brazilian electoral law favors formal electoral coalitions that can attract the most votes. After tabulation, votes can be redistributed to other coalition candidates in different parties, helping to maximize the number of elected legislators. The law permits the transfer of votes from a losing candidate from one party in the coalition to another party’s candidate, adding to their vote tally and raising them above the electoral quotient.

In past elections, the number of congressional candidates among the parties of the left had dipped; Lula hopes to reverse the trend and thereby maximize such vote transfers to elect as many allies as possible.

Moreover, Lula has intensified his collaboration with his communications guru, Sidonio Palmeira, and the newly elected president of the PT, Edinho Silva (see our Key Stakeholder). Palmeira and Silva are responsible for carrying out the president’s vow to battle the opposition over social media and renew the PT’s popularity among urban youth — seen as a key strategy for Lula’s reelection and growing the party’s membership ranks.

Lula and Silva know 2026 will be sharply contested. Amid low unemployment and stabilized inflation, both believe re-election is within reach. However, they are less confident in the congressional elections. We expect them to double down on social media and youth-minded podcasts, blasting the Bolsonaros for selling out to Washington and castigating Freitas for his waffling. The presidential election will be tight, but Lula’s margin could be defined by the Bolsonaros’ falling stock price.