Canada: Carney Puts Energy Sovereignty & Security First

What happened: Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a high-profile address in Davos, taking indirect aim at Trump.

Why it matters: For investors, Carney tied energy to sovereignty and security, rather than climate. — a subtle but important shift.

What happens next: The PM's pragmatic approach could open new markets for Canadian energy, and he'll score political points with his pugnacious stance toward the US president.

In an 18-minute address that he reportedly wrote himself, Prime Minister Mark Carney (see Featured Personality) argued at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the US-backed world order that rewarded liberalization and multilateralism is over, replaced by a system of power blocs, coercive trade tools and a highly transactional environment. While Carney avoided naming US President Donald Trump, it was clear from his remarks that Washington has fueled this change — and that it is not going to change back.

Carney warned that this puts middle powers at risk unless they become more self-reliant, as well as form new trading and security blocs with each other. He also emphasized the importance of energy security, critical minerals and supply chains when navigating the new world order.

For investors, the most important part of the speech was the way Carney tied energy to sovereignty and security, rather than climate. This is a subtle but important shift.

Davos audiences have heard plenty of speeches heavy on green energy investment, including from Carney himself, who spoke in 2018 about the need for financial institutions to adapt to climate risks. What they hear less often is a clear political case that energy exports, supply chains, Arctic security and critical minerals belong in the same category as national security.

In our view, his call to embrace the world as it is, rather than as countries may want it to be, could open new markets for Canadian energy abroad — if Ottawa follows through on the PM's commitments to approvals, infrastructure and funding.

The speech earned Carney a rare standing ovation in Davos and heavy international coverage. Trump was less impressed.

In his own Davos address, the US president chided Carney directly, foreshadowing future conflict as the two countries renegotiate the USMCA trade agreement.

Still, Trump’s rebuff could play in Carney’s favor at home. His speech was almost universally applauded in Canada and could even set him up for a snap election.

Indeed, the Liberals have opened a four-point lead — 39% to 35% — over the Conservatives in the latest opinion poll, as Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty become the predominant issue. If US tensions keep ramping up, they could help Carney secure the majority he fell short of in 2025.

The PM’s address also comes less than two weeks before Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is to undergo a leadership review vote at his party’s national convention in Calgary. Poilievre has been struggling to raise his approval rating after three MPs announced they were leaving caucus: one to sit as an independent and two to join the ruling Liberals.

Conservative insiders tell Horizon Engage there is significant grumbling among party rank-and-file. One MP even said they expect Poilievre to be forced out by year’s end — and maybe sooner if Carney’s popularity grows.