Canada: Major Projects Office's List Will Grow

What happened: With five projects already identified, PM Carney's Major Projects Office will soon have to deliver on its promise.

Why it matters: The MPO stands out because it's headquartered in Alberta, reports directly to the equivalent of the PM's office and is headed by a high-profile energy sector executive like Dawn Farrell.

What happens next: We expect Port of Churchill and the Ring of Fire to be the next projects on the MPO's list.

The efficiency of the Major Projects Office (MPO), established to coordinate and streamline regulatory approvals and facilitate financing for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “nation-building projects”, will soon face acid tests. With the first five projects identified and others about to be announced, many hope the MPO will now get into action.

The MPO has three interesting aspects.

First, it is headquartered in Calgary, 3,300 km west of Ottawa. Most federal economic agencies are centered in the capital; in normal circumstances, the MPO would have followed that pattern.

Yet Carney has made a particular point of listening to Alberta’s concerns, distancing himself from past Liberal prime ministers, who many Albertans viewed as uncaring about their interests, if not hostile to them. Locating the MPO in Calgary was an important political signal.

Second, the MPO is under the Privy Council Office (PCO)’s authority, which is in essence the PM’s department. Typically, such an agency would fall under the authority of a minister with an economic portfolio. However, as an arm of the PCO, accountability for the MPO's performance is directly tied to the Prime Minister.

Third, rather than choosing a senior bureaucrat, Carney appointed Dawn Farrell (see our Key Stakeholder), a high-profile energy sector executive, to head the office. That was a further signal that energy development — including fossil fuels — will be among the MPO’s top priorities.

The office’s focus on energy and critical minerals aligns with the priorities of Carney’s export diversification efforts, most recently in Mexico and western Europe. Two projects not yet on the MPO’s formal list are likely to emerge in the near future as key elements in the export agenda.

The first is the redevelopment of the Port of Churchill on Hudson Bay. Opened in 1931, it is Canada’s only deepwater Arctic port. Equally important, it is connected to the national railway network. Originally designed to export grains from the prairie provinces, volumes fell over the years; the rail and port infrastructure deteriorated.

With global warming, however, the shipping season — normally July to October — has lengthened and will probably stretch even further. The port is thus attracting attention from a broader range of exporters. It handled its first shipment of zinc in August 2024, and further mineral shipments are scheduled through 2025.

Churchill did not make the first list because its plans were not sufficiently developed, but it will surely feature in the future. It especially appeals to Carney, as the port and railway are indigenous-owned and Manitoba’s indigenous Premier, Wab Kinew, is strongly supportive. The project could therefore set a positive precedent by gaining early approval from the 11-member Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) attached to the MPO.

Redeveloping the Port of Churchill might also open the door to a west-east pipeline from Alberta. A pipeline to Churchill would certainly have disadvantages, compared to a pipeline across British Columbia — 600-700 km extra distance, remote location, harsh climate and restricted shipping season.

However, it offers the advantage of being politically easier, given the likely opposition of the provincial government and First Nations to new pipelines. It also fits nicely into Carney’s agenda of expanding energy exports to Europe, while avoiding dependence on US ports.

Second is the Ring of Fire project to develop a range of critical minerals in Northern Ontario. The project is already challenging from an engineering and environmental protection point of view, but the positioning of local First Nations is even more complex. Some are supportive while others are implacably opposed, and it is unclear how the matter can be resolved.

Ontario Premier Ford has expressed confidence that the MPO will shortly list the Ring of Fire as a priority and has pledged provincial support. But it is a more controversial proposal than the Port of Churchill and would pose thornier problems for the MPO and the IAC.