Canada: New NDP Leader Says No New Oil and Gas

What happened: Canada’s New Democratic Party has elected filmmaker Avi Lewis as its new leader.

Why it matters: Lewis is opposed to oil and gas development, making his party an unreliable partner for the minority Liberal government.

What happens next: Lewis’ election makes it even more crucial for Prime Minister Mark Carney to secure a majority in upcoming byelections.

On 29 March, Canada’s New Democratic Party (NDP) elected a new leader, Avi Lewis. Lewis, a former broadcaster and filmmaker, won handily on the first ballot with 56% of the vote. He called his campaign an "anti-capitalist movement," promising a wealth tax, national rent control, public grocery and telecom companies, a moratorium on AI data centers and, most notably, a phasing out of oil and gas production in Canada.

Lewis is unequivocally opposed to new fossil fuel developments, including LNG. His Green New Deal would include an export tax on oil and gas shipped to the US, the end of government incentives and support to the industry, and a shift toward renewable energy.

Anti-Oil History

In 2015, Lewis and his wife, author Naomi Klein, published the LEAP Manifesto, which called for a complete moratorium on fossil fuel extraction. The document angered the Alberta NDP government, and many observers believe it contributed to the party’s defeat in the 2019 provincial election.

Current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi wants nothing to do with Lewis, and the leader of the Saskatchewan NDP, Carla Beck, refuses to meet with Lewis unless he changes his position on resource development.

Lewis calls these differences “a sign of health,” but the reality is that his party needs all the support it can get. The federal NDP was decimated in the April 2025 election, falling from 24 to just seven seats as left-leaning voters defected to the Liberals over concerns about US President Donald Trump, tariffs and the cost of living.

In Canada, party status — which confers funding for staff, asking questions in the House and representation on committees — requires a minimum of 12 MPs. The loss of status has weakened the NDP, which is polling at 8% today. Two weeks ago, NDP MP Lori Idlout crossed the floor to the Liberals, and rumors persist that NDP MP Andre Boulerice may quit to run for the leadership of a Quebec provincial party, which would reduce its seat count to five.

Implications for Oil and Gas

While the NDP has never formed government in Canada, it has held the balance of power in several Liberal minority parliaments. Most recently, it propped up the government of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from March 2022 to September 2024, demanding funding for priorities such as pharmacare and daycare in exchange for support on confidence motions, including the annual budget.

Under Lewis, the NDP could make more radical demands, including refusing to approve Alberta’s proposed bitumen pipeline to the BC coast. This makes the Liberals unable to rely on the NDP for support, considering their MoU with Alberta and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s vow to make Canada an “energy superpower.”

This means the Liberals now must secure a majority by winning the three upcoming byelections (see our 13 March 2026 Latest Analysis) to avoid having to obtain third-party support.

But there may be other elections on the horizon, including in the Toronto riding of Beaches East Woodbine, currently held by Liberal Nathan Erskine Smith. Smith is running for the provincial Liberal nomination in Scarborough with a view to becoming Ontario party leader. Additionally, in Boulerice’s Quebec riding of Rosemont, previously held by the Bloc Québécois, rumors are swirling that Trudeau’s former environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, may be exiting government. This would threaten the loss of his seat, previously held by the Bloc Québécois.

While Lewis has said he is not focused on running for a seat in Parliament, instead prioritizing rebuilding the party on the ground, that could change should Smith win the provincial nomination race and step down from his federal seat. Beaches East Woodbine has voted NDP before, and it is a potentially winnable riding, particularly if Lewis manages to siphon off Green Party support and build on his status as party leader.