Cote d'Ivoire: Ouattara Makes his Move

What happened: President Ouattara designated Patrick Achi to be the next head of the National Assembly.

Why it matters: This takes Achi out of the running to be the next vice president amid an ongoing reshuffle that makes the president's succession plan more uncertain.

What happens next: We expect Ouattara to pick RHDP stalwarts to the vice presidency and the prime minister’s office in an attempt to stabilize the increasingly divided ruling party.

On 15 January, President Alassane Ouattara nominated Patrick Achi to be the next head of the National Assembly. The announcement came amid much confusion over the opening of the new parliament.

Two days before, the secretary general of the National Assembly had called for MPs to open session on 16 January. However, parliament elder Mamadou Diawara abruptly cancelled that meeting, sparking much infighting.

Achi’s appointment is in part connected to this mess within the RHDP. In our view, Ouattara is feeling the strain of a ruling party that, despite winning more than 75% of seats in legislative elections in December, is unable to agree on when or how to start parliament. He needs a stable, experienced and loyal politician like Achi to head up the National Assembly as the RHDP turbulence becomes more pronounced.

Achi replaced Adama Bictogo, whom some thought would keep his job. However, Bictogo would likely have struggled to hold the assembly together, particularly given his ever-decreasing approval with the president.

Bictogo has been repeatedly investigated for corruption linked to his visa and identity card business, SNEDAI; his overt presidential ambitions have also led to his fall from grace.

The Trouble with Achi

Achi’s appointment as speaker raises many questions. He was obvious pick for VP, which would have put him in pole position to assume the presidency should Ouattara die in office opr simply take over at the next election, when the president will be 88.

We assess that Ouattara believed Achi would have been too destabilizing to the RHDP. The ruling party old guard finds Achi problematic because he was previously a member of the opposition PDCI and hails from the east instead of the RHDP's northern stronghold.

That Ouattara feels so concerned by tensions within the ruling party that he is not able to appoint the best choice for vice president signals a turbulent political period ahead, particularly surrounding the transition.

Sassoro, Photocopy, Coulibaly

Other candidates for Vice President or Prime Minister include:

• Fidele Sarassoro, the president’s chief of staff, is a longstanding senior figure in the ruling party. Sarassoro is a close ally of Ouattara and extremely loyal; he also has a good grasp of the military, having overseen the demobilization, disarmament and reintegration program after the civil war. This would be a useful asset in any transition, given the need to keep the military on side. Sarassoro is a northerner.
• Defense Minister Tene Ouattara, the president’s brother, is known as "Photocopy" for being his doppelganger. Tene would likely be regarded as a continuity choice by many in the RHDP who would see him as an extension of Ouattara, making it an easier sell to the ruling party. This appointment would be less positive for foreign investment, however, as Tene has been mired in recent corruption and money laundering scandals and is less technocratic and economically adroit than his brother.
• An outside possibility is Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy Sangafowa Coulibaly, who holds much sway in the north and is popular with many hardliners in the RHDP. He is rumored to have lobbied extensively for the vice presidency or prime minister’s position and has performed so well as minister that Ouattara will look to reward him. Coulibaly is slightly risky, though, because he was once chummy with exiled former rebel leader Guillaume Soro, Ouattara's former nemesis. We believe the president may struggle to trust Coulibaly in such a senior role.

Achi Still Has a Shot

Ultimately, Achi may end up being Outtara's successor. But his appointment as speaker suggest that the president is not yet ready to commit to him. We expect this uncertainty and the difficulty of choosing a successor to be a scourge on Ouattara’s fourth term and for the stability of the investment environment.

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