Impact to Canadian Critical Minerals Development

US Trade War and Québec elections could impact further investment in Canada’s mining projects

What happened: The US-Canada trade war drags on, with new tit-for-tat escalations; meanwhile, Québec is preparing for a provincial election that could affect critical mineral development.

Why it matters: Both issues could potentially dampen investment as companies adopt a wait-and-see approach. On the other hand, Ottawa’s diversification agenda could see trade and investment increase with partners outside of the US.

What happens next: Trade discussions could stretch on until after the US midterm elections; Québec voters go to the polls on 5 October with no party likely to form a majority government.

Canada is navigating an escalating trade war with the US, marked by a new import ban on select Canadian goods, which has accelerated Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy to diversify international trade and attract global capital to Canada's critical minerals sector. Key efforts include the inaugural Canada Investment Summit in Toronto aiming to catalyze $1tn in five-year investments, alongside major federal initiatives such as the $2bn Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator. However, higher project costs driven by counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum, combined with political uncertainty around Québec’s October provincial election and the US midterms, introduce important wildcards for global investors.