Iraqi Kurdistan: Masrour and Nechirvan Barzani Strengthen Spheres of Influence

What happened: Masrour Barzani has solidified himself as a stronger candidate within Kurdistan, driving its hardline KRG-formation strategy, while Nechirvan Barzani is gaining influence in Baghdad and with external actors.

Why it matters: Masrour Barzani will have a larger say in KRG posts, including over the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), and has become the KDP’s diplomatic face in Washington.

What happens next: Government formation will stoke more jockeying for political influence, and it is important for investors to avoid the appearance of picking a side.

In the aftermath of the federal government formation, President Nechirvan Barzani’s and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s wings of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are still competing. Masrour has an edge over Nechirvan, maintaining dominance within Kurdistan, while Nechirvan is more favorable in Baghdad and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

Masrour drives KDP’s uncompromising negotiation strategy for the formation of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and will likely fill the majority of the KDP’s share of ministries with his allies. Meanwhile, Nechirvan will likely keep his presidential position and continue to build relations with political actors in Baghdad with the ambitious goal of gaining an advantage over Masrour.

Nechirvan had a good two months. As the federal government was formed, he traveled to Baghdad twice to represent the KDP and strengthen his own relations there. Political actors in Baghdad signaled their support for him to play a bigger role in Baghdad-Erbil energy and political relations, knowing it would boost him vis-à-vis Masrour. As a result, he is now the KDP’s most desired interlocutor in Baghdad.

Nechirvan consolidated this influence by taking an active diplomatic role with the Syrian Kurds and representing the KRG’s positions with Iran and the US as their war unfolded. He successfully capitalized heavily on his foreign diplomatic standing and ability to convene senior Kurdish and Iraqi stakeholders if he chooses.

Masrour also traveled to Baghdad, but only after the government was formed. Despite warmly welcoming him, Baghdad’s political circles view him as a less flexible negotiator compared to Nechirvan. They effectively used the government formation process to target Masrour, as Parliament did not vote on his candidate for the Ministry of Construction and Housing, Rebaz Hamlan, despite the position historically belonging to the KDP in the Mohammed al-Sudani cabinet. That was a big hit to Masrour, who is grappling with how to build influence in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, former Construction and Housing Minister and Masrour ally Bengin Rekani (see our Featured Personality) stepped down as head of the Civilian Aviation Authority. Rekani may get another government position in Baghdad, but is now awaiting Masrour’s orders once the second round of government formation resumes after July.

These developments have not weakened Masrour in Kurdistan, however. His faction leads the KRG-formation talks and the remaining KDP posts in the federal government. Even though the PUK formed an alliance with the New Generation Movement and secured the federal presidency — alongside foreign diplomatic pressure to resume concrete meetings — Masrour has not budged.

Additionally, Masrour is still fighting to keep the Ministry of Interior under the KRG’s control and will not allow it to become part of the PUK’s share. The post is a power base for him, as it directs significant parts of the KRG security establishment and is reserved for his ally and incumbent KRG Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed. Masrour looks at the KRG formation as an inflection point where he can challenge PUK chief Bafel Talabani and set the stage for a better position in the KDP leadership race.

Masrour also consolidated his position with the US by using smart lobbying, meeting with US Presidential Envoy Tom Barrack during his June visit to Kurdistan. Barrack now plays a central role in Iraq policy, and this meeting helped Masrour compete with Nechirvan, who is the ultimate diplomatic face of the KDP and is viewed as a consensus-builder by Washington.

As oil production resumes in Kurdistan, investors need to stay abreast of these developments but avoid the appearance of picking sides. We recommend not raising it when meeting with any KDP stakeholders. The KDP projects an image of unity and does not like to discuss internal affairs with foreigners.