On Our Radar: Energy Markets Roundup

Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, why they are relevant to foreign investors.

Elections were a highlight of our coverage last week, including the tight presidential runoff in Peru, snap state votes in Malaysia and the MPLA party leadership election in Angola, where President João Lourenço just announced his intention to run for a third term.

We also noted moves from the EU in different areas. The bloc appears to be preparing a range of tools to combat China’s supply chain dominance — if it can reach consensus — and took a harder line against Russian tankers. Russia took another blow when the Kazakh government signed a design and survey agreement with Hyundai for its Karachaganak gas processing facility, signaling a desire to move away from dependence on Russian partners.

Finally, we covered Trump’s impact on the energy investment landscape in Latin America in the newest episode of our podcast, “Friend or Foe? Is Trump Helping or Hurting Energy Investors in Latin America?”

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Americas

Argentina: Milei Protects Embattled Cabinet Chief and Pays Hefty Political Cost

What happened: Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni is failing to brush off allegations surrounding his asset declarations, tax evasion and embezzlement. His days in the administration seem numbered.

Why it matters: The allegations of corruption affect President Javier Milei’s reputation. However, Milei still shields Adorni despite overwhelming evidence against him.

What happens next: Congress will try to move with a non-confidence vote. Government allies might turn against the Milei administration and complicate the reform agenda.

Peru: Presidential Runoff Election too Close to Call

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What happened: For the second time in a row, Peru's presidential runoff election is too close to call, with a virtual tie between right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori and her leftist rival, Roberto Sánchez.

Why it matters: This means the political uncertainty will likely drag on until mid-July, with no clarity on whether investors will return to market continuity or face a statist overhaul over the next five years.

What happens next: Expect weeks of legal challenges and mounting street pressure from both camps before one of the candidates is formally proclaimed the winner.

Asia-Pacific

China: The Looming EU-China Trade War

What happened: There is an emerging alignment in Brussels and key EU capitals that the current China model is a structural threat to European prosperity: Chinese overcapacity is hollowing out EU industry, while Beijing’s growing leverage over critical supply chains is pushing Europe toward a more forceful de‑risking agenda, even at the risk of retaliation.

Why it matters: The Commission is building a wide toolbox, including a Section 301‑style overcapacity instrument, tougher tariffs and safeguards and tighter rules of origin. How far it can go still depends on Germany’s internal debate.

What happens next: China will likely retaliate with tariffs, but also wield its new industrial and supply‑chain security rules, sharply raising the stakes for European companies.

Malaysia: Two State Elections Could Shape the Next General Election

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What happened: Johor and Negeri Sembilan are heading for snap state elections, turning local contests into dry runs for the next general election.

Why it matters: UMNO sees a chance to build comeback momentum, while PH must prove its urban and non-Malay base has not checked out.

What happens next: A strong UMNO showing could push BN towards a solo general election strategy, while a credible PH defense may keep PM Anwar Ibrahim’s second-term hopes alive.

Europe/Eurasia

Kazakhstan: Government Pushes Karachaganak Gas to Reduce Russian Dependence

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What happened: Hyundai said it received a QazaqGaz letter of award, but Akkenzhenov clarified that the agreement currently only covers design and survey work.

Why it matters: The deal signals Kazakhstan wants non-Russian gas infrastructure partners, while financing, feed gas terms and contract stability remain the key risks.

What happens next: We will be monitoring whether Hyundai’s early mandate becomes a full EPC contract and whether the final cost lands closer to $2.5bn or $6bn.

Russia: Russia’s Tanker Routes Under EU Pressure

What happened: The EU is taking a harder line, with stepped-up inspection powers against suspected Russian shadow-fleet tankers in the Mediterranean, while Novatek and government officials push legal, diplomatic and Arctic shipping countermeasures.

Why it matters: For investors, Russian energy risk is moving beyond sanctions lists into shipping delays, insurance disputes, tanker shortages and exposure through maritime services.

What happens next: The signposts to watch are whether the EU lists more tankers, IRINI starts real boardings, Novatek secures Arc7 vessels, and Moscow turns warnings into practical retaliation or route hardening.

Middle East/North Africa

Oman: To Cement Alliances, NOC Favors Strategic Partnerships

What happened: President Trump’s threat on social media to bomb Oman put the country on notice and highlighted wider unease about its friend-to-all approach amid the Iran War.

Why it matters: For Oman, the key long-term relationship is not with the US but with its fellow GCC states, especially the neighboring UAE. Failure to manage these ties could cause Oman to miss out on post-war integration opportunities.

What happens next: Oman has sought to clarify its position in recent weeks, but could face economic and security impacts if it refuses to change its underlying attitudes.

Yemen: Regional Escalation Reawakens Houthi Maritime Threats

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What happened: Yemen’s Houthis announced a “complete ban” on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea as part of their response to ongoing regional escalation.

Why it matters: The first official Houthi announcement of a Red Sea blockade during the Iran war increases the systemic risk for shippers using Bab al-Mandab.

What happens next: We still view the Houthis as hesitant to get involved in the Iran War, and foresee the group pursuing a narrow interpretation of “Israeli maritime navigation” in implementing their ban, leaving most traffic through the Bab al-Mandab unaffected.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Angola: Lourenço Seeks to Control Ruling Party After He Leaves Office

What happened: President João Lourenço announced he wants to run for a third term as MPLA president.

Why it matters: The MPLA's dominance of Angola's political system means that who controls the party after Lourenço leaves office matters more than who succeeds him as president.

What happens next: If Lourenço gets his way, he could seek to position First Lady Ana Dias Lourenço as his successor, though the couple will face resistance from MPLA heavyweight Higino Carneiro.

Mozambique: Government Tightens Control Over LNG While Keeping Investor Protections

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What happened: Mozambique approved a new petroleum law that expands state participation in hydrocarbons as the country prepares for large-scale LNG development.

Why it matters: The legislation nonetheless preserves key investor protections, including international arbitration.

What happens next: While existing contractual protections remain intact, investors pursuing new LNG projects, expansions and acquisitions should expect more emphasis on domestic benefits than has historically been the case.

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These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.