South Africa: Names of Possible Presidential Candidates Circulate in ANC

What happened: Four names are circulating in ANC succession discussions: Patrice Motsepe, Paul Mashatile, Tokyo Sexwale and Fikile Mbalula.

Why it matters: While the leading candidates are not dramatically different on broad economic policy or energy reform, internal ANC pressures and market reactions to their leadership could shape the pace of reform and policymaking.

What happens next: We expect Motsepe and Mashatile to build momentum as top contenders ahead of the party’s leadership conference in December 2027.

Although the election is not until 2029, South Africa’s presidential race has begun within the African National Congress (ANC), which will choose its next leader in December 2027. Although not a hard-and-fast rule, the party leader is typically its presidential candidate in the general elections, due in 2029.

The ANC leadership debate is the first round of selecting South Africa’s next president: Parliament elects the president rather than a national vote, meaning that the party with the largest parliamentary share plays an outsized role in determining the country’s political direction. The ANC holds 40% of parliamentary seats, with the next-largest party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), at 22%.

We expect the ANC’s parliamentary share to decline by 2029 — and anticipate a weak performance in this year’s local elections — but we believe it will still be South Africa’s largest political force through to the end of the decade. This means it will be disproportionately important in determining the country’s political and economic direction.

Succession discussions have intensified behind the scenes and in local media. Below, we profile the four top names surfacing in political conversations, business circles and factional lobbying: billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe (see our 9 March 2026 Latest Analysis), Deputy President Paul Mashatile, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula and former Gauteng Premier Tokyo Sexwale.

Patrice Motsepe

Motsepe is the frontrunner.

Publicly, he denies any intention to run for political office. However, ANC presidential campaigns begin years before formal declarations; denials at this stage mean little. His name circulates persistently among mining, financial services and energy sector figures concerned about policy continuity and the future of market-oriented reforms after Ramaphosa.

Meanwhile, a prominent local media outlet reported in April that campaign T-shirts linked to a Motsepe bid had already been manufactured. (In March, a website called PM27 Savumelana (we agreed) was launched, portraying Motsepe as a unifying and visionary leader of the ANC and for South Africa.) Motsepe has not responded to either event.

Motsepe draws strength as a candidate capable of stabilizing both the party and investor confidence. He is associated with business-friendly governance, institutional stability and continuity with at least some of the reform trajectory Ramaphosa has pursued, particularly greater private sector participation in energy and logistics. He is well-positioned to maintain a workable relationship with the DA inside the coalition government framework, the GNU.

At the same time, Motsepe’s distance from day-to-day ANC factional battles works against him internally. ANC leadership contests are rarely decided purely on public popularity or technocratic credibility; branch structures and patronage networks are decisive, and his lack of alignment with local alliances could work against him.

Paul Mashatile

Mashatile has long been viewed as the most obvious successor to Ramaphosa, given his institutional role as deputy president and extensive political networks. However, we do not believe he is Ramaphosa’s preferred successor: Sections of the president’s camp favor a more reformist and market-friendly figure, such as Motsepe.

He has support inside parts of the ANC that are skeptical of the GNU — particularly the DA’s inclusion in it — and are wary of the growing influence of business-aligned reformists within the party. If ANC factions conclude that a more traditional political operator is necessary to hold the party together, he will benefit.

Furthermore, the succession issue could need a solution earlier than expected, which would strengthen his position: Ramaphosa stated in an 11 May national address that he would not resign amid renewed political pressure linked to the Phala Phala matter and impeachment discussions, but this does not necessarily guarantee that he will remain in office through to 2029.

If Ramaphosa were to exit early — whether after the 2026 local elections, due to mounting political pressure, or even through impeachment — Mashatile would be constitutionally and politically well positioned to assume the presidency. Incumbency would likely strengthen his position ahead of the ANC’s next leadership contest.

Investors and business circles would likely view Mashatile with greater caution than Motsepe, given his association with the ANC’s more ideological wing and factions opposed to reducing red tape for business. This could slow investor decisions as some may adopt a wait-and-see approach.

In some respects, this will be fair: Mashatile’s greatest challenge will be appeasing the faction that supports his bid for the party leadership, especially as some members will likely push for a shift away from Ramaphosa’s policies.

Still, we do not anticipate that Mashatile, as state president, would pursue radical economic transformation policies. We also highlight that his stance towards the energy sector is not sharply different from Ramaphosa's: he has defended greater private-sector involvement and the phasing out of coal-fired power in pursuit of a mixed-energy supply, including gas.

He has also moderated his public posture since late 2025; earlier tensions between the ANC and DA saw Mashatile adopt a far more combative tone toward the coalition arrangement. Now, he is more restrained and pragmatic, reflecting the realities of coalition governance.

Tokyo Sexwale

Former businessman and ANC veteran Tokyo Sexwale has resurfaced in public discussions about the ANC succession race. In our view, rumors of his potential interest are not far-fetched.

Sexwale is in the Ramaphosa camp, and if Motsepe does not make a bid for the presidency, he is a palatable alternative. Like Motsepe, Sexwale combines liberation struggle credentials with business experience. A former anti-apartheid activist, he was imprisoned on Robben Island alongside Nelson Mandela and later became Gauteng premier and built a substantial business profile after the end of apartheid.

Most recently, he gave US Ambassador to South Africa Leo Brent Bozell III a tour of Robben Island, as the Ramaphosa administration seeks to temper tensions with the US, which have risen since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term.

His background and closeness to the president suggest he may continue the reforms started under Ramaphosa, including in the energy and logistics sectors, and that he will be sympathetic to greater market liberalization. However, he lacks the same momentum and institutional visibility, and our contacts say that Sexwale has little appetite — for now at least — to take on the country’s top job.

Fikile Mbalula

Mbalula is the least likely of the four to emerge as a serious presidential contender, though he remains highly visible as ANC secretary-general and continues to publicly project political ambition. He is also popular within the party.

However, our contacts say there is real concern within ANC structures that he lacks the gravitas required for a successful national leadership bid. His public communication style and frequent controversies have also undermined his credibility.

Mbalula poses the greatest risk to the business environment, even if he does not disagree with all of the Ramaphosa administration’s policy directives. He supports a mixed energy model incorporating coal, gas and renewables; he has even lambasted climate activists for their role in delaying investment decisions in the gas sector.

But his closeness to more populist elements in the party suggests regulatory inconsistency and favor for more onerous investor requirements. The negative market reaction to a successful bid for leadership would also weigh on the business environment.

Looking Ahead

In our view, Motsepe and Mashatile are each other’s biggest competition. In the coming months, if senior Ramaphosa allies begin openly appearing alongside Motsepe at ANC or business events, or if business organizations frame him as a continuity candidate for energy and logistics reform, this would suggest momentum behind a reformist succession path.

By contrast, if Mashatile strengthens his backing within major provincial ANC structures such as Gauteng or KwaZulu-Natal — while returning to criticism of the GNU and the DA — this would signal that more traditional factional politics are reasserting themselves inside the party and backing their most visible candidate.