Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image is of Indian billionaire businessman Gautam Adani, who features in the Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the page.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: Israeli Strike Threatens Azerbaijan Energy Flows

What happened: Israel struck Iranian naval assets near Bandar Anzali on 19 March, marking its first known operation in the Caspian Sea and targeting logistics linked to Russia-Iran military transfers. The move extends the conflict’s geographic scope and introduces a new security variable for Azerbaijan’s offshore production and export environment.

Why it matters: While Azerbaijani export flows via BTC and the Southern Gas Corridor remain uninterrupted, the strike breaks the assumption that the Caspian is insulated from regional conflict. Exposure to hybrid threats—drones, sabotage and cyberattacks—has increased, raising insurance costs and risk premiums for infrastructure such as Sangachal and cross-Caspian shipping routes.

What happens next: The base case is continued stable output with elevated security and financing costs. A key signpost is whether Iran retaliates asymmetrically against infrastructure linked to Western stakeholders. At the same time, reduced Iranian naval capacity may reopen discussion around cross-Caspian energy links, though these remain politically and operationally sensitive.

Brazil: Phase Four Pre-Salt Hub Licensing on Hold

What happened: A federal court in Angra dos Reis suspended IBAMA’s preliminary licence for Petrobras’ Phase Four of the Santos Basin Pre-Salt Hub, halting installation of 10 platforms and 132 wells. The ruling followed a Federal Public Ministry challenge citing failure to consult coastal communities affected by the project.

Why it matters: The decision forces Petrobras to pause a $35bn flagship development and exposes IBAMA to heightened judicial scrutiny. The court found violations of consultation rights under ILO Convention 169, signalling that procedural shortcuts in environmental licensing—especially for large-scale projects—risk legal reversal and escalating intervention from federal prosecutors.

What happens next: IBAMA, FUNAI and INCRA must submit a consultation plan within 60 days, likely meeting the deadline. However, prosecutors are pushing for a full socio-environmental assessment; if mandated, this would extend delays and litigation risk, potentially pushing Phase Four timelines into 2027 and complicating broader pre-salt expansion plans.

Iraq: Ambitious Pro-Iran Militias Set Sights on Next Cabinet

What happened: Pro-Iranian militias are leveraging the Iran war to expand their influence over Iraq’s next cabinet, pushing for a decisive role in selecting the prime minister and shaping key ministries. Groups such as KH, Nujaba and KSS are positioning to increase control as expectations grow that Tehran will endure the conflict.

Why it matters: Greater militia influence would pull Baghdad closer to Tehran and challenge US leverage over Iraq’s political and economic direction. Control over cabinet formation—especially energy and security portfolios—would give militias deeper institutional power, increasing risks around policymaking, sanctions exposure and the operating environment for Western investors.

What happens next: Militias will push for a preferred candidate such as Maliki, but may accept a second Sudani term if they can exert tighter control behind the scenes. While the next government will still prioritize foreign investment in energy, it will face growing pressure from militias seeking greater influence and economic leverage.

Kazakhstan: Lukoil Sanctions Shift Kazakh Investment Landscape

What happened: KazMunayGas suspended development of the Kalamkas More and Khazar offshore fields after US sanctions on Lukoil halted progress, despite completed design work and ongoing restructuring talks. The $6.4bn project, expected to produce 4mn tpa from 2029, is now paused as KMG consults Washington on the future of Lukoil’s stake.

Why it matters: The move confirms sanctions are now directly constraining new Caspian upstream cooperation with Russian partners, not just legacy projects. At the same time, it creates openings for alternative investors—including Chinese firms, Gulf capital and private equity—competing for entry into assets that were previously inaccessible to non-Russian partners.

What happens next: The 1 April 2026 OFAC license deadline is the key signpost. An extension would indicate ongoing negotiations and potential restructuring. If it lapses, KMG will likely lead a forced reconfiguration of ownership, with any new partner requiring US approval and navigating complex sanctions-compliant transaction structures.

Kuwait: Kuwait Decries Iranian Derailing of Development Push

What happened: KPC CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud al-Sabah, speaking remotely at CERAWeek, condemned Iranian attacks on Kuwait’s oil sector after weeks of drone and missile strikes. The campaign has forced a near-total production halt, damaged key infrastructure and disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz, undermining Kuwait’s early-2026 growth momentum.

Why it matters: The attacks have shifted Kuwait from expansion to crisis management, with production cut sharply and flagship projects already losing investor interest. Infrastructure vulnerabilities—highlighted by refinery strikes and airport fuel tank damage—raise the risk of more severe disruption, increasing operational costs and eroding confidence in Kuwait’s ability to deliver on its development ambitions.

What happens next: Restarting production will take months even after a ceasefire, with KPC estimating 3–4 months to recover output. Longer term, persistent security risks and the threat of further strikes will delay projects such as Durra, pushing Kuwait’s oil sector timeline back by at least 6–12 months and weighing on future investment.

Mexico: New Infrastructure Investment Law

What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum used Mexico’s National Banking Convention to launch a new infrastructure investment bill alongside a direct appeal to private capital. The proposal creates a centralized framework for strategic projects while maintaining majority state control, signalling a shift toward structured public-private collaboration in key sectors, especially energy.

Why it matters: The initiative reflects recognition that public funding alone cannot drive growth, but the 51% state control requirement limits investor upside and flexibility. While the framework promises streamlined permitting and legal certainty, concerns remain around execution, governance clarity and whether project terms will meet international investor thresholds.

What happens next: With MORENA’s congressional majority, the bill will pass quickly. The real test will be early project approvals by the Strategic Planning Investment Council—transparent, commercially viable selections would build confidence, while opaque or overly state-driven deals risk reinforcing investor caution and slowing capital deployment.

Nigeria: Energy, Security, Transparency & Tuggar Missing as Tinubu Meets Starmer

What happened: President Bola Tinubu led a high-level delegation to the United Kingdom to promote closer trade and security ties, with both governments presenting the visit as a reset in bilateral relations. Behind the optics, discussions were overshadowed by limited progress on energy cooperation and scrutiny around a politically exposed ports financing deal.

Why it matters: The visit exposed structural limits in UK–Nigeria alignment. London remains reluctant to finance hydrocarbons despite gas supply pressures, while backing a $990mn ports project tied to politically connected contractors raises governance risks. Security cooperation also lacked substance, highlighting constrained UK capacity to materially support Nigeria’s most pressing challenges.

What happens next: Nigeria is likely to pivot toward Asian and Gulf investors for gas development, where capital and risk appetite are stronger. UK engagement will remain selective, focused on commercially advantageous deals rather than strategic energy or security commitments, while political exposure around the ports project could generate friction if domestic dynamics shift.

Peru: Energy Problems Enter Presidential Election Campaign

What happened: The 1 March rupture at the Camisea gas pipeline - cutting deliveries to around 10% of capacity - has become a central issue ahead of Peru’s 12 April election. The disruption exposed acute infrastructure vulnerabilities and pushed energy security to the forefront of a fragmented race with 36 candidates.

Why it matters: With no candidate polling above 12% and 40% of voters undecided, the crisis has intensified political uncertainty around energy policy. The stalled $4bn Gasoducto Sur and wider sector reforms remain hostage to electoral fragmentation and likely congressional gridlock, leaving investors exposed to prolonged regulatory paralysis.

What happens next: A right-leaning runoff remains the base case, though López-Chau’s rise introduces uncertainty. Regardless of the outcome, expect a four-month policy vacuum until late July and limited progress on structural energy reforms, with infrastructure bottlenecks and investment delays persisting into 2027.

Sao Tome & Principe: Reputational Risks Grow as Interpol Targets Foreign Advisors

What happened: Authorities in São Tomé and Príncipe detained two foreign advisors linked to President Carlos Vila Nova and Prime Minister Américo Ramos on Interpol warrants. Both individuals had held informal advisory roles across senior institutions, with arrests exposing weak vetting practices and the government’s reliance on non-official channels.

Why it matters: The case heightens reputational and compliance risks for investors engaging through informal networks. Apparent due diligence failures will trigger greater scrutiny from development partners and financiers, slowing approvals and increasing AML and ESG requirements, while reinforcing longstanding concerns around transparency in STP’s political and investment environment.

What happens next: The opposition will weaponize the arrests ahead of elections, while authorities signal a tougher stance on informal advisors. However, the electoral cycle will likely stall deeper governance reforms, leaving a temporary chilling effect on such appointments and pushing investors toward more formal, transparent engagement channels.

Venezuela: What Venezuela Must Fix to Take the Iran War Opportunity

What happened: The surge in global oil prices driven by the Iran war has accelerated Venezuela’s reopening to US and select international energy companies. Backed by OFAC’s expanded licensing and output near 1mn bpd, Caracas is moving quickly to attract investment as higher prices dramatically improve the economics of restarting idled capacity.

Why it matters: At prices above $100, Venezuela’s revenues could far exceed prior expectations, but the opportunity is constrained by deep structural risks. Institutional opacity, discretionary fiscal terms, currency instability and rising social unrest all threaten to derail momentum, leaving investors exposed to abrupt regulatory shifts and operational uncertainty.

What happens next: Sustained investment will depend on credible reforms to the fiscal regime, stabilization of the bolívar and consistent US political backing beyond the midterms. Without progress on these fronts, the current opening is likely to remain opportunistic and short-lived rather than a durable return of Venezuela as a major supplier.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Indian billionaire businessman Gautam Adani's Adani Group is pursuing partnerships with Google and Meta to expand its data center business, according to media reports in a boost for the billionaire.

Adani has been talking up a push to expand his company’s digital infrastructure portfolio.

This is another win for Adani, who continues to pursue and make new deals with some of the world's biggest and most prestigious companies, despite being saddled by fraud allegations laid out by the US Department of Justice in 2025.

That companies as large as Meta and Google are willing to do business with him is an indication that he's been able to avoid serious reputational impacts emanating from his legal troubles.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.