Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, whose recent visit to Kazakhstan is covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Milei’s Midterms: Vote Explainer and Key Numbers to Watch

What happened: Argentina holds midterm elections to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate.

Why it matters: The vote is crucial for President Javier Milei to strengthen his position in Congress for the second half of his four-year term and seek reelection in 2027.

What happens next: We expect Milei to barely save face; he will have to introduce political and economic changes in the weeks after the vote to straighten his government.

Brazil: Finally, IBAMA Approves Petrobras Drilling in Block 59

What happened: IBAMA approved Petrobras' license to drill the Morpho exploratory well in the Foz do Amazonas Basin.

Why it matters: Despite political pressure, IBAMA President Rodrigo Agostinho reaffirmed his agency’s technocratic credentials, refusing to bend IBAMA’s process to the administration’s political imperatives while working alongside Petrobras to enhance the NOC’s emergency response capabilities.

What happens next: IBAMA and Petrobras have set a licensing standard for the Foz do Amazonas after an additional 19 blocks in the basin were tendered last June.

Cyprus: Erhurman’s Victory Reopens the Door to Peace Talks

What happened: Tufan Erhurman convincingly defeated President Ersin Tatar in the Northern Cyprus elections, signaling a sharp turn away from Turkey’s preferred two-state rhetoric.

Why it matters: The result strengthens prospects for renewed UN-led reunification talks, a development that could ease political risk around offshore energy projects.

What happens next: If Erhurman maintains Ankara’s goodwill and wins early trust from Greek Cypriot leaders, we expect exploratory talks to restart by early 2026, potentially unlocking stalled regional investment.

Indonesia: Sovereign Wealth Fund Deployment Signals a Shift in Mining, Energy Strategy

What happened: Danantara plans to deploy $10bn of its initial capital within its first three months, targeting 80% domestic projects from a list proposed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

Why it matters: The sovereign wealth fund's planned investments in mineral processing, renewables and waste-to-energy projects open up opportunities for collaboration with foreign partners.

What happens next: A signpost to watch is how Danantara structures its deals. As a new, politically backed institution, the fund must demonstrate its ability to overcome governance and operational risks.

Iran: Majles Forges Ahead with Currency Redenomination Despite Doubts

What happened: Petroleum Minister Paknejad has struck a confident tone about the sector’s prospects, despite the UN snapback sanctions and new US sanctions targeting Iranian exports.

Why it matters: Tehran wants to portray business as usual, but will face challenges in managing the tightening of sanctions and the risk of renewed armed conflict.

What happens next: Iran will prioritize engagements with existing Chinese buyers alongside new workarounds for continued exports, while preparing for further physical risks.

Japan: New Coalition's Decarbonization Platform Reflects Takaichi's Vision

What happened: Japan's parliament elected Sanae Takaichi as the next prime minister.

Why it matters: Takaichi owes everything to the LDP’s new coalition partner, JIP, which backs promoting nuclear and renewables like geothermal and mostly supports LNG, hydrogen and CCS.

What happens next: The coalition offers much-needed political stability, but Takaichi has tough domestic and diplomatic tests right around the corner.

Kazakhstan: Transit Deals, Energy Anchor Tokayev-Aliyev Partnership

What happened: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s two-day visit to Astana focused on energy, transit, renewables and digital cooperation.

Why it matters: For investors, growing bilateral cooperation now offers a clearer path for accelerating Middle Corridor logistics, building structured entry points into green and digital infrastructure and scaling crude exports through the BTC pipeline.

What happens next: The next signpost to watch is Kazakhstan finalizing BTC tariff terms and moving SK-AIH’s first green projects to financial close, which will confirm whether this new Caspian partnership delivers real investor-grade momentum.

Malaysia: Sarawak’s Energy Link to Singapore Sidesteps Royal Roadblock

What happened: Singapore granted conditional approval to import 1 GW of low-carbon electricity from Sarawak, with construction of an undersea transmission link scheduled to begin in 2026.

Why it matters: The deal — which was nearly derailed by the King, who wanted the cable to make landfall in his state, Johor, before reaching Singapore — signals a rare defiance of royal preference and underlines Kuching’s growing autonomy from Putrajaya.

What happens next: The project will anchor ASEAN’s power-grid ambitions and deepen Sarawak–Singapore economic ties. Politically, it further elevates Premier Abang Jo’s status as the second most powerful individual in Malaysia.

Nigeria: Ribadu Under Pressure as Army Denies Planned Putsch

What happened: Reports of a thwarted coup attempt showed underlying resistance to President Tinubu’s tightening nationwide grip.

Why it matters: The incident has raised questions over the poor relationship between NSA Ribadu and Nigeria’s service chiefs, and how that affects internal security.

What happens next: We expect Tinubu to use the development as a pretext for a shakeup in senior military ranks and a crackdown on the opposition, especially in the north.

United States: Louisiana Shows Obstacles to LNG Buildout

What happened: A district court judge in Louisiana halted construction of the Commonwealth LNG terminal for not complying with environmental procedures in approving its permits.

Why it matters: The suspension is the first major setback for the second Trump administration's pro-LNG energy policy.

What happens next: We expect the LNG pipeline to go ahead as the pro-construction side will likely win on appeal, but delays may multiply in other sites.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.