South Africa: Malema's Appeal to Delay Political Fallout for EFF

What happened: Leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Julius Malema was sentenced to an effective five-year jail term for offenses related to when he fired a weapon at a public EFF celebration in 2018.

Why it matters: Malema has appealed the sentence, but if he loses, the EFF, which has become a feature of South African politics, will struggle ahead of the 2029 national election.

What happens next: An unrepentant Malema will continue to use the conviction to rail against the judiciary in a bid to shore up his support until his appeal is heard, possibly in 2027.

On 16 April, the East London Magistrates’ Court sentenced Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Commander-in-Chief Julius Malema to five years in prison. This followed his October 2025 guilty verdict for the illegal possession of a firearm, discharging a firearm in public and reckless endangerment after firing a semi-automatic weapon into the air in “celebration” at the EFF’s anniversary event in 2018.

In theory, his conviction should bring an end to his parliamentary career: MPs cannot have been sentenced to more than 12 months in prison without the option of a fine. Malema can appeal his sentence, which will ensure a long, drawn-out process that we do not expect to resolve before the 2026 local elections. However, his fate should be decided by the next national election in 2029, with implications for the EFF’s electoral fortunes.

Without Malema’s leadership, the EFF’s support could fragment ahead of the 2029 elections. This may be positive for investors as it reduces the prospect of an ANC-EFF coalition, rather than one that includes the Democratic Alliance. However, much will depend on other factors, such as the outcome of the ANC succession and whether EFF support boosts other parties, including former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party.

EFF Struggles

The EFF is tied to Malema: He formed the party in 2013 after he was expelled from the ANC for bringing it into disrepute and contravening the party constitution. The EFF currently holds 39 of the 400 seats in the National Assembly, making it the fourth-largest party after the ANC, Democratic Alliance and MK Party. Its best performance was in 2019, when it won 44 seats with 10.8% of the vote, but has struggled to advance significantly in recent years.

In that time, the EFF has suffered from a number of defections to the MK Party, including its former deputy president, Floyd Shivambu, and former public protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane. The MK party will likely remain the main beneficiary of any blowback in the EFF.

Populist Positions

Nonetheless, the party remains relevant under Malema’s leadership. He can set the political agenda and attack incumbent politicians with radical positions on issues such as land reform and nationalization that have raised investor concerns.

The party also uses its minority position effectively to secure influence, as it did in governing coalitions in Gauteng province and several local governments, including the City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. In some councils, the EFF's support is critical, which gives it kingmaker status and ensures its relevance.

Persecution Claims

With the outcome of an appeal unlikely to be known for at least a year — plus a possible Constitutional Court challenge to follow — Malema will use his sentence to push his claim that he is being politically persecuted. His immediate response to the sentencing was to attack the magistrate and Afriforum, the lobbying group that brought the case, while continuing to reject any wrongdoing.

Malema will also look to use the case to his and the EFF’s political advantage ahead of the 2026 local elections, but while some sympathetic voices regard his five-year sentence as harsh, this alone is unlikely to result in a major boost at the polls, given the party’s recent underwhelming performance.

If Malema’s appeal is successful, he will be emboldened in his populist politics, which will increase the stakes for coalition building after the 2029 election. If not, the EFF’s ability to reinforce its leadership structure ahead of his possible imprisonment will be a key signpost to watch.

Although Malema will want to continue as if he will not ultimately face jail, there is also a general weakness in the party’s wider leadership that will make it hard for the party to maintain relevance in his absence. Current EFF Deputy President Godrich Gardee lacks Malema’s charisma, and while party spokesman Sinawo Tambo is a rising star, he is still a youthful 29. Additionally, Malema has centralized power, making it harder for a new leader to emerge.