South Africa: Why Investors Should Care About Motsepe's Presidential Ambitions

What happened: Patrice Motsepe's resignation as chairman of African Rainbow Minerals has led to renewed speculation that he will run for the ANC presidency in 2027.

Why it matters: Motsepe's potential candidacy is relevant for investors — he is President Cyril Ramaphosa's brother-in-law and ARM holds significant interests in energy-related projects, raising conflict-of-interest concerns.

What happens next: Given his lack of support at the ANC branch level, Motsepe will need to engage widely with the party's rank-and-file and open his checkbook if he is to stand any chance.

Patrice Motsepe’s resignation as executive chairman of African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) on 16 February, along with a new "PM27" website promoting him as the “most credible, unifying, and visionary leader” for the ANC, has fueled speculation that Motsepe is preparing to mount a bid for ANC president at the party’s conference in late 2027.

The timing of his departure from ARM is largely to comply with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s new listing requirements, which came into effect on 13 January 2026. These mandate that the CEO and chair positions of a listed company must be held by different people.

On 7 March, Motsepe distanced himself from the PM27 campaign. However, the possibility of him testing the political waters has not gone away, especially given growing concerns among President Cyril Ramaphosa’s camp over the candidates available to succeed him.

Motsepe, who happens to be Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law, lacks strong connections with ANC branch members and currently lacks a strong provincial base. To mount a successful bid, he will need to mobilize the branch delegates who will vote at the 2027 conference and form strategic alliances with several provincial leaders who will deliver votes in exchange for his support for their own bids for other leadership positions.

As one of the richest South Africans, Motsepe’s money will likely be handy to build support, but it will not necessarily be enough. The support of leadership that will contest the other six of the ANC’s top seven positions will also be critical.

False Start

In late January, ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula warned ANC members against early campaigning for leadership positions and called for the party to focus on the local elections, likely to take place around November 2026. This will have prompted Motsepe’s efforts to distance himself from the PM27 campaign, but efforts will continue in the background.

Until the local elections, signposts for investors of which candidates are gaining momentum will include evidence of public support at ANC events and increased travel to the provinces.

Limited Options

The ongoing rumors of Motsepe’s possible candidacy reflect concern among Ramaphosa’s allies, who have floated that potential successors — such as Speaker of the National Assembly Thoko Didiza — may not be able to defeat Deputy President Paul Mashatile.

Given his relationships and untainted leadership, Motsepe will be able to rely on support from business. But if he decides to run and win, his lack of branch support will mean he will be seen as having been parachuted into the position. This will undermine his legitimacy among many ANC constituents at a critical juncture for the party, which faces further electoral support losses in the 2029 national election.

Blind Trust

Like Ramaphosa, Motsepe will need to place his considerable business assets into a blind trust if he wants to take a step into politics. They will remain a perceived conflict of interest, especially in the energy sector.

ARM, for example, has stakes in both coal and PGMs, while African Rainbow Energy & Power, led by former Eskom CEO Brian Dames, has a portfolio of renewable energy projects.

All In the Family

This will complicate any energy policy changes under a Motsepe presidency. There is already a recurring conspiracy that former Minister of Energy Jeff Radebe, who is also Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law, signed contracts with independent power producers to benefit Motsepe’s interests at the expense of Eskom.