Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image shows Ukraine's President Zelensky, who has ousted his popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Federov as part of a cabinet reshuffle - triggering domestic protests and frustration among foreign partners.

We cover all developments featured below in further detail on our client portal. To receive our full reporting and analysis on any of these events, or to enquire about a complimentary country-risk briefing from one of our country experts, please click here for more information.

Americas

Guyana: Bharrat Pushes Harder Local Content Line

What happened: Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat touted the government’s management of the oil and gas sector, highlighting policies encouraging local content and ensuring parity for Guyanese workers. He also warned new license holders that his ministry would ensure strict compliance with contract terms.

Why it matters: Bharrat’s rhetoric aims to both encourage further investment in Guyana while heading off criticism of the Stabroek Block PSA.

What happens next: Bharrat and the rest of the PPP/C administration will take an increasingly firm line to hold foreign companies accountable to contract terms and local content legislation, especially regarding partnership opportunities for Guyanese companies and employment for locals.

Venezuela: Quake Aftermath Accelerates Political Transition Debate

What happened: As Venezuela confronts one of the worst natural disasters in its history, the 2015 National Assembly announced a new working agenda on institutional reform, electoral rules and political participation, led by Speaker Dinorah Figuera.

Why it matters: The initiative has the blessing of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting that the Trump administration is increasingly convinced that political transition and economic normalization should go hand in hand.

What happens next: Reconstruction could accelerate efforts to resolve Venezuela's central paradox — a government with power but without legitimacy, and a legitimate yet powerless opposition.

Asia-Pacific

China/US: Section 301 Tariffs will be Key Sign for US-China Truce

What happened: The US is replacing tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, with new levies expected in late July and further tariffs targeting excess capacity likely later in the summer.

Why it matters: The measures will keep tariffs on Chinese goods below 2025 levels while expanding exemptions, limiting inflation and protecting US supply chains.

What happens next: The US-China truce will likely hold, but tariff adjustments, export controls and limited market-access negotiations will continue. Major trade and investment agreements remain unlikely.

South Korea: Government Expands Cross-Border CCS Strategy Through Southeast Asia

What happened: Korea is accelerating its CCS strategy, combining overseas CO2 storage partnerships in Southeast Asia with new investments in domestic carbon transport and storage infrastructure.

Why it matters: The initiatives address Korea's structural shortage of geological CO2 storage while building the engineering and logistics capabilities needed to commercialize large-scale CCS.

What happens next: Attention will shift to demonstration projects, bilateral implementation agreements with Southeast Asian partners, and commercialization of integrated CCS hubs.

Europe/Eurasia

Greece: Brussels Runs Out of Patience with Greece and its Shipowners

What happened: Greece's diplomatic push to soften Russian energy and maritime sanctions has thrown a spotlight on Greek shipowners' business dealings with Moscow since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The publicity suggests EU partners are growing impatient with Mitsotakis's attempt to be all things to all people — brokering US-Europe energy deals and sponsoring Ukraine reconstruction while sheltering shippers' Russia-linked commercial ventures.

What happens next: Greece has shrinking room for maneuver precisely when the PM — facing elections with a reduced majority — most needs the backing of powerful shipping interests; an uneasy compromise is the most likely outcome, with Athens on the back foot in future negotiations.

Ukraine: Zelensky Consolidates Power Ahead of Fall Economic and Defense Challenges

What happened: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet, replacing Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko with Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi. He also controversially ousted popular, reform-minded Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, triggering domestic protests and frustration among foreign partners.

Why it matters: The reshuffle is a calculated maneuver to reassure Western partners and markets despite Ukraine’s $52bn external financing gap. Zelensky is aiming to absorb the political damage of recent scandals, relying on Koretskyi to signal administrative competence. However, ousting Fedorov risks alienating the international allies Ukraine relies on.

What happens next: Protests and disenchantment over Fedorov’s removal will continue, while Koretskyi’s cabinet will face immense challenges this fall. These include IMF deadlines in October and a critical shortage in ballistic missile defenses that will allow continued Russian strikes on the energy grid later this year, likely further compounding the sovereign budget shortfalls.

Middle East/North Africa

Libya: Pakistan as Mediator & Arms Dealer Could Be Chinese Proxy

What happened: From arms deals with the Haftars to recent mediation efforts, the growing role of Pakistan in Libya is raising eyebrows in European capitals.

Why it matters: Islamabad seems determined to expand its footprint and defense cooperation appears an effective entry point. Its rise in Libya may also serve as a proxy for Chinese interests.

What happens next: While the US and Saudi Arabia support Pakistan’s mediation efforts for now, any overreach could prompt a backlash.

Turkey/Iran: Why Both Sides Still Need a Deal

What happened: With no formal renewal talks announced, Turkey’s 25-year gas offtake contract with Iran is set to expire on 31 July, even as deliveries rebounded from a brief March disruption following Israeli strikes on South Pars to record levels in April and May.

Why it matters: Turkey has reduced its dependence on Iranian gas without eliminating it. Renewing the contract now depends as much on payment channels and sanctions compliance as on its commercial terms.

What happens next: Expect a shorter, lower-volume agreement resembling the rolling renewals Turkey has favored for Russian gas since 2024, rather than another multi-decade commitment.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Angola: Falcon Oil Rides Upstream Local Content Push

What happened: The government approved Sonangol’s transfer of a 5% stake in Block 17/06 to Falcon Oil, elevating a politically connected indigenous firm as part of broader efforts to favor local upstream players.

Why it matters: The deal signals a growing structural shift toward state-backed inclusion of Angolan private firms in upstream assets, which can reduce exposure to Sonangol’s financial problems but raises governance and counterparty risks.

What happens next: We expect further stake reallocations and farm-ins favoring indigenous firms under the Hydrocarbons Strategy 2026–2050, increasing pressure on foreign investors to align with national champions through financing, partnerships and local content commitments.

South Africa: Orange Basin Offshore Opportunity Can Help Unlock South African Exploration

What happened: The government publicly appreciated the opportunity presented by Namibia’s offshore exploration in the Orange Basin.

Why it matters: Positive offshore progress in Namibia will maintain pressure on the South African government to unlock exploration.

What happens next: While cordial bilateral relations will be key to project implementation, joint infrastructure projects will be slow to materialize.

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These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.