Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image shows Guyanese President Irfan Ali, who recently championed Guyana's sovereignty over the disputed Essequibo region while marking the 60th anniversary of the country's independence.

We cover these developments and more below, and in further detail on our client portal. To receive our full reporting and analysis, or to enquire about a complimentary country-risk briefing from one of our country experts, please click here to get in touch. 

Americas

Canada: First Nations Will Make or Break West Coast Pipeline Project

What happened: Alberta identified three potential northern pipeline corridors to the West Coast, prompting immediate opposition from indigenous groups.

Why it matters: The three routes affect indigenous territories and fishing grounds; their participation could make or break the project.

What happens next: Alberta plans to submit the corridors to Ottawa's Major Projects Office by 1 July as part of the province's bid to obtain a "national interest" designation this fall.

Guyana: Guyana Turns 60 Amid Unprecedented Growth, Institutional Weakness

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What happened: To mark the 60th anniversary of Guyana's independence, President Irfaan Ali championed Guyanese sovereignty over the Essequibo region, called for national unity and promised greater prosperity.

Why it matters: Investors should look beyond the government’s optimism for clues as to the more concerning issues not mentioned in the president’s address.

What happens next: Guyana will remain a hot destination for investors, but institutional deficiencies could put the brakes on the PPP administration’s plans and prove frustrating for investors. 

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia: Upstream Revival Push Faces Structural Roadblocks

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What happened: Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced plans to offer 118 new oil and gas working areas for investors.

Why it matters: The announcement reflects a major effort to revive upstream exploration amid declining production and rising domestic energy demand.

What happens next: To woo foreign investors, the Prabowo administration must address structural challenges such as permitting delays, overlapping regulations, contract uncertainty, tough local content requirements and slow project approvals.

Malaysia: CCS Industry Stuck In the Doldrums

What happened: Malaysia is making very limited progress on CCS, with senior officials publicly acknowledging that funding gaps and technological barriers are holding back commercial development.

Why it matters: High costs and lack of government support remain the primary roadblocks, even as a global energy crisis is driving renewed pressure on governments to accelerate decarbonisation.

What happens next: With Anwar preparing to call a snap election ahead of schedule, progress on CCS-enabling legislation including the delayed climate change bill and proposed carbon tax is likely to slip further.

Europe/Eurasia

Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan-Turkey Energy Ties Enter New Phase

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What happened: At Baku Energy Week, Azerbaijan and Turkey advanced Absheron Phase 2 gas sales, power corridor plans and wider transport links through Georgia.

Why it matters: For investors, Turkey is becoming an anchor buyer, a transit gateway and a political shield that improves project bankability but concentrates corridor risk.

What happens next: The signposts to watch are the Absheron FID, BOTAS pricing terms, SOCAR’s BTC handover and financing for the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey power corridor.

Russia: Putin’s Messaging Points to Longer Energy Strain

What happened: Ukraine hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal as SPIEF opened, while Putin and Zelensky traded sharply different public messages on war, negotiations and Russian vulnerability.

Why it matters: For investors, SPIEF showed that Russian energy is still generating cash but is now more militarized, exposed to Ukrainian strikes, subsidy-dependent and politically tied to a long war.

What happens next: We expect Moscow to keep projecting confidence while Ukraine tests pressure on ports, refineries and elite confidence, making Russian energy harder to insure, finance and monitor.

Middle East/North Africa

Algeria: To Cement Alliances, NOC Favors Strategic Partnerships

What happened: The Hormuz crisis has accelerated Sonatrach's embrace of strategic energy partnerships that pair downstream sales with upstream projects through long-term deals.

Why it matters: Algeria's energy sector was previously something of a carveout from day-to-day foreign policy swings. But it’s increasingly being seen as a part of Algeria's alliance-building toolkit — a trend that will shape commercial outcomes.

What happens next: The new upstream bid round will test how politicized the energy sector is becoming. Investors looking to win acreage should consider speaking separately to Sonatrach about more comprehensive bilateral energy partnerships.

Turkey: With ‘Blue Homeland’ Bill, Erdoğan Could Extend Claims in Contested Waters

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What happened: A new draft law would grant the Turkish president authority to declare an Exclusive Economic Zone extending up to 200 nautical miles — encroaching on waters also claimed by Greece and Cyprus.

Why it matters: If Turkey passes the bill and stakes its claim, it would revive longstanding tensions over Cyprus’s EEZ, adding new legal and geopolitical uncertainty for East Med energy investors.

What happens next: The bill is expected to reach parliament in the coming days. If it passes, attention will then shift to whether and where Erdoğan chooses to exercise the new authority, with disruption to Cypriot gas projects a distinct possibility.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria: Oyo Incidents Show Spreading Security Crisis to Oil-Producing Zone

What happened: Several serious incidents in Oyo State in the last few weeks pointed to an escalating security crisis in southwestern Nigeria: school kidnappings prompted protests and a teachers' strike.

Why it matters: The incidents undermine the government’s claims that its recent efforts on security are succeeding, and present an electoral challenge for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his home region. Worsening security in the South West could also affect the operating environment in the region’s oil-producing states of Lagos and Ondo.

What happens next: Nigeria’s lawmakers will expedite the contentious launch of state police forces, while there is also scope for US military action in the southwest if the insecurity spreads, expanding recent counterterrorism efforts beyond the north.

Senegal: Faye Reshuffles Cabinet, Likely Improving Relations With Oil and Gas Sector

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What happened: President Faye reshuffled his cabinet, removing major allies of former Prime Minister Sonko — including the former petroleum minister — and replacing them with technocrats and loyalists.

Why it matters: The new oil and gas minister is much closer to Faye and more of a technocrat; we expect he will seek to reduce resource nationalism in the sector.

What happens next: Faye will likely instruct the new minister to adopt a more conciliatory tone toward oil and gas investors, though resource nationalism is unlikely to be completely eradicated.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.