Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of interim Peru President, Jose Jeri (attribution), who recently issued an emergency decree to reorganize Petroperú’s assets and ensure the continuity of the country's national hydrocarbon production and supply chain.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: State Oil Fund Enters Lower Revenue Era

What happened: A watchdog agency confirmed that SOFAZ's dividend income from ACG, Shah Deniz, the Southern Gas Corridor and the STAR refinery will sharply decline in 2026, pushing total revenues to a five-year low.

Why it matters: Azerbaijan is entering a phase of structurally lower oil-driven cash flows, higher fiscal sensitivity to prices and growing reliance on asset management over upstream dividends.

What happens next: Expect tighter budget discipline, pressure on SOCAR to reprioritize capital allocation and stronger government focus on efficiency, gas monetization and energy transition projects to attract foreign capital.

Canada: Carney's China Gambit

What happened: Ottawa and Beijing agreed to a new energy framework, but without any concrete commitments.

Why it matters: PM Mark Carney wants to diversify Canada’s economic partnerships away from the United States — and energy is front and center.

What happens next: Regular energy policy talks will be held at the ministerial level every 12–18 months, with emphasis on low-carbon sources and tech.

Egypt: New Gas Deal with Israel Advancing Despite Obstacles

What happened: Israel approved an expanded export permit for gas from the Leviathan to Egypt, but finalisation has stalled over contractual changes that would shift control of delivery volumes toward the Israeli side.

Why it matters: The dispute highlights Egypt’s growing dependence on Israeli gas and increases Cairo’s exposure to pricing, supply, and political leverage at a time of fiscal constraint and IMF oversight.

What happens next: A revised deal is likely after further negotiations, with Egypt continuing to receive elevated volumes, while Israeli authorities retain greater flexibility to prioritise domestic supply when needed.

Kazakhstan: Tankers Targeted as Black Sea Drone Attacks Escalate

What happened: Four Greek-managed tankers linked to Kazakh crude liftings were reportedly hit by unidentified drones near the CPC terminal by Novorossiysk.

Why it matters: The strikes augment the export route risk for Kazakh barrels by pushing up insurance premiums and causing delays.

What happens next: Expect muddy attribution and repeat incidents as Russia and Ukraine escalate at sea; investors should monitor CPC throughput, OFAC moves and the 17 January Lukoil deadline.

Oman: Unique Relationship with Iran Presents Opportunities

What happened: Oman’s carefully constructed role as an interlocutor between the West and Iran is keeping it busy amid the country’s economic crisis and rising risks of foreign strikes.

Why it matters: The ongoing revolt in Iran will likely have a long tail, but whatever the outcome, Oman is well-positioned to benefit from the crisis.

What happens next: Investors seeking to position themselves for a new future in Iran might consider leveraging Oman’s Iranian access.

Peru: NOC Overhaul Opens Narrow Path for Private Investment

What happened: Interim President Jose Jeri issued an emergency decree to reorganize Petroperú’s assets and ensure the continuity of the national hydrocarbon production and supply chain.

Why it matters: The decree aims to provide the NOC with a temporary lifeline and prevent creditors from assuming direct control, while establishing a framework for limited private investment to support Petroperu's recovery.

What happens next: The state-led investment promotion agency will help identify and develop strategic assets under technical arrangements protected by the state. Investors should brace for curves — if the process goes south, pressure for privatization will mount.

Sao Tome & Principe: Ties with Russia Looking Good Ahead of Elections

What happened: A Russian warship visited STP, prompting bickering within the ruling ADI party over the government's lack of due process; the opposition MLSTP was either silent or downplayed the importance of the port of call.

Why it matters: Despite the ADI infighting, historically strong military ties make a radical break in bilateral relations unlikely.

What happens next: Still, the outcome of this year's general elections could bring some change if the more pro-EU MLSTP wins.

UAE: Down but not Out

What happened: Somalia ended all cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, including multiple port deals and security cooperation agreements.

Why it matters: Coming shortly after the Saudi-backed expulsion of Emirati forces from Yemen, the Somalia cancellation is part of a Saudi regional push against Emirati expansionism.

What happens next: We expect the Emiratis to push back once they have recalibrated their regional influence network. Saudi-Emirati proxy fighting will increase political risk for investments linked to either party in the medium term.

USA: Peltola Could Make Senate Dems More Pro-Drilling

What happened: Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-ASK) announced a run for the Senate in 2026, making the race significantly more competitive.

Why it matters: If she wins, Peltola could help move her party toward a more favorable stance on natural resources and energy policy.

What happens next: We expect Peltola to win her primary; in the general election, where the national political mood will likely decide the race, she will lay markers for where she wants Democrats to go.

Vietnam: New SOE Framework to Benefit EVN, PNV

What happened: The Politburo issued a resolution establishing the most ambitious SOE development framework since the failed state-led model of the 2000s.

Why it matters: The resolution positions energy giants as "lead cranes" with expanded mandates and capital, reshaping partnership dynamics for foreign investors.

What happens next: IECs must embrace SOE partnerships rather than competitive market entry, as the new framework favors structured collaboration over independent development.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Kazakh Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Yerbolat Dosayev, has been named to the board of Baiterek, Kazakhstan’s second-largest state-run welfare and investment fund. He joins board chairperson Olzhas Bektenov and board members Roman Sklyar, Yersayin Nagaspaev among other ministers. He will continue to serve as deputy head of the Presidential Administration.

The news of Dosayev’s return to Baiterak was included in a Kazakhstan Stock Exchange filing. The news confirms that Dosayev retains his influence with the president and senior leaders. It underlines the importance of political alignment and familiarity with long-standing power brokers when engaging with major development institutions.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.