Welcome to a special edition of On Our Radar, which this week includes a detailed focus on US-Iran military posture in addition to the usual summary of developments impacting the energy market over the past week.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

US-Iran Military Posture

The below is taken from our regular US-Iran Military Posture SITREP email - if you would like to be added to the distribution list for this, please click here.

Our sense is that the force buildup that began around 12 February is now starting to level off. The majority of US assets appear to be in place, although we are still observing some heavy inbound airlifter traffic.

The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group has transited Gibraltar today and is expected to reach the Eastern Mediterranean around 24 February, where it will be in a position to provide top cover for Israel and support strikes into Iran.

We have adjusted the status of two of our key indicators today:

Movement of US assets out of the Gulf: We are seeing some imagery intelligence suggesting a quiet drawdown of tanker aircraft at al-Udeid Air Base over the past 24 hours. Tanker presence appears reduced from approximately 20 aircraft to around seven at last count. Forward tanker dispersal or withdrawal is one of our 24–72 hour strike indicators. We are therefore marking this as noted, though tentatively, as no corroborating indicators have been noted yet, and a residual tanker presence remains at the base.

Evacuation of US military dependents: assessed as possible. There are signs of personnel drawdowns from US bases in the Gulf, though not yet at scale. Separately, we also note that some international oil companies are partially evacuating staff from Iraq.

With most assets now in theatre, these two indicators — alongside any evacuation of US embassy personnel — are now the key escalation signals to watch. Where either shifts are noted, it would suggest a higher probability of imminent action. We are keeping a close eye out for a further “bug out” of the remaining tankers at-Udeid, which would be a strong indicator that a strike is imminent.

We continue monitoring force posture, evacuation patterns, and diplomatic signalling for shifts that would materially alter the near-term risk outlook.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Preemption Rights May Encourage Homegrown Opportunity Seekers

What happened: An Angolan oil company exercised preemption rights over stakes being sold by a foreign consortium in two oil blocks, stopping a deal agreed late in 2025.

Why it matters: This practice results in increased M&A delays and red tape; it also signals opportunities for local private firms amid a push for local content.

What happens next: The deal is pending a new PSA and regulator sign-off; only local firms that can tap financing will be able to seek preemption rights.

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Leans Toward US Amid Rising Tensions With Russia

What happened: President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Washington for President Trump’s Board of Peace meeting, deepening US alignment while publicly rejecting pressure to release Karabakh prisoners in Baku.

Why it matters: Baku’s closer alignment with the US and firmer resistance to Russia could increase risks related to the latter. However, it also signals stronger US political backing for energy and corridor projects.

What happens next: Armenia’s June elections and progress on constitutional changes are key signposts for the peace deal and TRIPP corridor, alongside highly likely Russian proxy pressure and disruption tactics.

Brazil: Energy Transition Roadmap is Shelved After Deadline Passes

What happened: The administration admitted that it is not prepared to set guidelines for its promised energy transition roadmap this year.

Why it matters: Lula will watch and assess the administration’s internal divisions over the roadmap initiative, waiting until next October’s elections to decide whether to accelerate fossil fuel replacement if he is re-elected.

What happens next: Environment Minister Marina Lula will continue to advocate for the roadmap but understands that her constituency and allies must win big in the October elections to push it to the finish line in 2027.

Canada: No Spring Election = Swifter Approvals

What happened: A former Conservative MP crossed the floor to the ruling Liberals, while the Supreme Court invalidated the result of a federal riding after a mail-in ballot was not counted.

Why it matters: The two developments make a spring federal election less likely — and easier for the government to approve major projects.

What happens next: Several by-elections over the next six months will determine whether the Liberals can solidify a working majority.

Indonesia: SKK Migas' Upstream Ambitions Face Execution Gaps

What happened: SKK Migas chief Djoko Siswanto’s ambitious 2026 agenda includes bringing eight upstream oil and gas projects online and drilling up to 100 exploration wells.

Why this matters: The agency faces an uphill climb because it operates within a fragmented governance environment that gives it little power but much accountability, creating a culture of risk aversion that perpetuates uncertainty for foreign investors.

What happens next: To meet its targets, SKK Migas must resolve bottlenecks that have long stalled the sector, as well as its own institutional capacity constraints.

Iran: Larijani Steps Up to Solve the Impasse, but Hardliners Counter

What happened: SNSC chief Larijani is actively supporting diplomacy with the US, but Ali Shamkhani’s appointment as Defense Council head is elevating a more antagonistic current.

Why it matters: With the Islamic Republic’s future in jeopardy, key stakeholders are divided. The resulting combination of aggressive external posturing, continued domestic crackdown and parallel diplomatic tracks is susceptible to mistakes and sabotage.

What happens next: After this week’s negotiations with the US, Larijani will look to outflank the militarists by crafting a deal acceptable to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Nigeria: Race is on for Tinubu's VP Slot

What happened: Electoral authorities set 20 February 2027 as the date for Nigeria’s presidential elections, intensifying the high-stakes race to become Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s running mate.

Why it matters: The president’s pick for VP, to replace the sidelined Kashim Shettima, will be an essential engagement target for energy investors as easily tired Tinubu faces a grueling campaign season.

What happens next: Tinubu will make his choice soon after the APC primary in June. Religion and state of origin are key considerations. Our frontrunner is former Speaker Yakubu Dogara.

Tanzania/Uganda: Museveni and Hassan Look to Push Major Projects with Global Partners

What happened: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s recent meeting with his Tanzanian counterpart, President Samia Hassan, covered a multitude of major infrastructure projects, including the soon-to-be-completed East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline.

Why it matters: The two governments have taken a pragmatic approach to foreign investment, welcoming both Western and Chinese IECs. While this signals opportunities ahead, it also means the environment is more competitive, especially given recent turbulent US relations.

What happens next: We expect construction on the EACOP to conclude before year-end; other, longer-term projects in the gas and transportation sectors are on the horizon.

United States: Solar Momentum Could Spread to Republican-Governed States

What happened: The Missouri Senate advanced a bill that would place a moratorium on solar projects until the end of 2027.

Why it matters: The state Senate’s Republican majority could draw out the process of drafting the regulations on solar energy that the bill calls for, leaving suppliers in limbo.

What happens next: The bill will have to pass the state House and get the governor’s signature, which appears likely. Given the Trump administration’s priority of stopping solar and wind projects, similar legislation could pop up around the country.

Yemen: New Cabinet Prioritizes Stability Amid Rising STC Allegation

What happened: The Yemeni government formed a new 35-member cabinet headed by Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani.

Why it matters: Containing representatives from across the anti-Houthi coalition, the cabinet signals the ROYG’s continued preoccupation with stability over efficacy amid rising pro-STC agitation in southern Yemen.

What happens next: We expect the Zindani cabinet will maintain stability and improve the investment environment in the short term, although flagging Saudi interest and growing STC agitation could worsen conditions in the medium to long term.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

SK Group's Chairman Chey Tae-won is overseeing the company's restructuring of its renewable energy sector with a $1.2bn sale to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.

SK is selling a stake in SK EterNix (30.98% owned by SK Discovery), along with the renewables divisions of both SK Innovation and SK Ecoplant.

The move, which is intended to boost the conglomerate’s global appeal, also aligns with South Korea's push toward carbon neutrality by 2050.

Chey is also in line with the current administration, signaling reduced internal focus on traditional fossil fuels, as SK refines its portfolio to prioritize scalable clean energy projects.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.