Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week's banner image is of Equatorial Guinea's Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons (attribution, reproduced under CC4.0), whose efforts to secure hundreds of millions of dollars in prepayment deals for future oil and LNG shipments are covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: Gas Flows Face Tighter EU Compliance Test

What happened: The EU began enforcing stricter gas-origin verification requirements under its Russian gas ban, putting Azerbaijani supplies via Turkey and Bulgaria under new scrutiny despite unchanged technical assessments.

Why it matters: For investors, the issue shifts from supply risk to regulatory friction, with higher compliance costs and potential delays affecting Azerbaijani gas volumes routed through sensitive EU entry points.

What happens next: Expect expanded certification and documentation requirements in 2026, with investor attention focused on how EU customs treat Strandzha routes and whether scrutiny stays procedural or turns political.

Equatorial Guinea: EG Seeks Cash Advance from Commodity Traders

What happened: The Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons has reportedly approached commodity trading companies for $300mn in prepayment deals for future oil and LNG shipments.

Why it matters: EG desperately needs a cash infusion to finance various petroleum projects, including the Zafiro field and the Asenge gas project.

What happens next: No formal agreements with energy traders have been publicly announced; discussions appear to be at a preliminary stage.

Ghana: Settling Energy Debts Will Boost Investor Confidence

What happened: The Mahama administration coughed up $1.47bn to clear longstanding energy sector debts and restore a World Bank partial risk guarantee that had been depleted under the previous government.

Why it matters: The move signals Mahama's commitment to fiscal discipline, energy reliability and respect for contracts, restoring trust with multilateral lenders and energy investors.

What happens next: While the debt repayment could unblock US foreign assistance and strengthen relations with Washington, Accra will continue to cultivate ties with Beijing and Moscow.

Greece: Market-Defying Ukraine Gas Deal Signals Political Will for Energy Projects

What happened: The first contract to supply gas to Ukraine via the Vertical Corridor was finally signed last week, days after another virtually dry auction for the route.

Why it matters: We view the agreement as a geopolitical play, using Greek quasi-state interests to prime the pump for a regional project that still faces commercial and regulatory headwinds.

What will happen next: The Mitsotakis administration will continue to encourage state and state-adjacent players to take a lead in establishing Greece as a gateway for US LNG — a political holy grail for New Democracy.

Iran: Key Stakeholders Prepare for the Next Phase

What happened: With control reestablished after January’s deadly protests, some previously silent stakeholders — most notably former President Rouhani and his pragmatist camp — are reasserting themselves.

Why it matters: Elites closed ranks during the acute phase of the crisis, but now competing visions and longstanding fissures are re-emerging, shaping decision-making around future crackdowns and negotiations with the US.

What happens next: Successful US negotiations could strengthen Rouhani's domestic leverage. Failure would reinforce the notion that Khamenei is leading Iran into the abyss.

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan Takes Over EAEU Chairmanship

What happened: Kazakhstan assumed chairmanship of the EAEU, which recently again delayed the launch of a common energy market. This also comes amid a sharp decline in Russian investment into Kazakhstan.

Why it matters: For investors, rather than creating new oil and gas and mining opportunities, EAEU chairmanship increases compliance costs, sanctions exposure and logistics timelines.

What happens next: An important signpost will be whether the government can remove real barriers through digital customs or whether EAEU integration becomes more politicized amid Russia-West tensions.

Malaysia: Petronas–Petros Legal Battles Increase Licensing Risk for Gas Operators

What happened: The Kuching High Court deferred the Petronas–Petros bank guarantee verdict to 25 February, while the Federal Court will decide on 16 March whether to hear Petronas’ motion on Sarawak’s regulatory framework.

Why it matters: Multiple suits and state penalties keep gas operations under a fog of licensing risk, raising political stakes for Putrajaya and Kuching.

What happens next: The tight legal corridor that could still end in compromise, but could just as easily drag on with fresh adjournments timed around festive and election seasons.

Sub-Saharan Africa: US Muscles in on Russian Zone of Influence in the Sahel

What happened: Nick Checker, the head of the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, visited Bamako and met with Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop.

Why it matters: The meeting suggests that the US government is trying to develop closer ties with the Sahel states, despite recent frosty relations, particularly following the US seizure of Venezuelan President Maduro.

What happens next: The US will seek to establish a security deal with Mali to help combat jihadist violence in exchange for access to key minerals, elevating tensions with Russia, the other major security partner in the Sahel.

Suriname: Pre-Oil Window is Tightening

What happened: The IMF warned that Suriname's 2025 fiscal and monetary slippages have already revived double-digit inflation and forex pressure, eroding earlier stabilization gains.

Why it matters: With debt elevated and the current account deficit widening due to oil-project imports, policy credibility — not oil optimism — is the near-term price setter for the SRD, inflation, and financing conditions.

What happens next: 2026 is a make-or-break year — either credible tightening rebuilds buffers ahead of first oil, or Suriname enters the oil era with a weaker currency anchor and higher rollover risk.

Yemen: Houthis Stay Opportunistic While Awaiting Adversaries’ Next Moves

What happened: After months of relative quiet, Houthi forces reasserted their regional presence in recent weeks with a series of threats to international sea and air traffic.

Why it matters: Coming alongside the risks of a new Iran war and Gaza escalation, the threats appeared more about winning concessions from Saudi Arabia than signaling an imminent return to international hostilities.

What happens next: We expect peace to hold in Yemen until at least March, with Houthi contributions to any Iranian counter-strikes likely to be symbolic. But real potential for escalation awaits if Israel launches a new Gaza offensive.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

At the year-opening event for staff and media, Suriname Oil Minister Patrick Brunings said 2026 must be a year of stronger execution.

He touted further development for the Oil and Gas Directorate, more capacity building, and advancing the Suriname 3.0 strategy he has long promoted.

He also promised clearer roles for both the Ministry of Oil, Gas and Environment (OGM) and the National Environment Authority (NMA).

In our view, Brunings continues to demonstrate good early traction in his role. His clear communications about policy goals and directions continue to burnish his reputation for competency.

His biggest challenge in the coming months will be to help build consensus in the cabinet.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.