Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week's banner image is of protesters outside the Iranian Embassy in London, demonstrating against the actions of the Regime in Iran. The Regime's attempt to move ahead while the country's deadliest protests since the 1979 revolution are stifled is covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: SOCAR Tests the Waters of Europe's Post-Russian Gas Order

What happened: SOCAR began supplying Azerbaijani gas to Austria and Germany via Italy, expanding its European footprint as Central Europe replaces former Russian pipeline supplies.

Why it matters: For investors, the move confirms durable European demand for Azerbaijani gas, but also highlights that ROI depends on financing upstream growth and expanding transport capacity, not politics alone.

What happens next: Keep an eye on whether SOCAR finalizes a contract with OMV and advances capacity upgrades, since these steps will determine if Azerbaijan can lift exports toward 20 bcma.

Canada: Carney Puts Energy Sovereignty & Security First

What happened: Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a high-profile address in Davos, taking indirect aim at Trump.

Why it matters: For investors, Carney tied energy to sovereignty and security, rather than climate - a subtle but important shift.

What happens next: The PM's pragmatic approach could open new markets for Canadian energy, and he'll score political points with his pugnacious stance toward the US president.

India: UAE LNG Deal to Create Downstream Opportunities

What happened: India and the UAE concluded a $3bn agreement under which ADNOC will supply state-owned HPC with 500,000 tons of LNG per year for the next decade.

Why it matters: This deal will make India the largest purchaser of Emirati LNG and create new downstream investment opportunities.

What happens next: Since the agreement doesn't start until 2028 and Indian red tape is legendary, there's a non-zero chance that something prevents the deal from being implemented. This could include contractual concerns or new instability in the Middle East.

Indonesia: Central Bank Politicization will Test Confidence in Economic Institutions

What happened: President Prabowo's nomination of his nephew, "Tommy" Djiwandono, as deputy central bank governor has reignited debate over Bank Indonesia's independence.

Why it matters: Despite Tommy's technical competence and record as deputy finance minister, this blurs the lines between fiscal and monetary authority at a time when policy coordination is already unusually tight.

What happens next: Parliament’s Commission XI will conduct a fit-and-proper test on the nominee in the coming weeks.

Iran: Regime Tries to Move Ahead While Protests are Stifled

What happened: Peaceful protests against deteriorating economic conditions turned into the deadliest uprising against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 Revolution.

Why it matters: The immediate risk of further unrest has subsided, but commercial and industrial activities have stalled and the economy continues its downward spiral. Society and the state are in a condition of near-paralysis.

What happens next: The coming weeks will see a gradual easing of communications restrictions, while effective martial law will remain in place. Domestic power struggles will surface as key stakeholders grapple for influence. Homegrown terrorism risks have increased, and a possible US military intervention could open a Pandora’s box.

Iraq: Investor-Friendly Cabinet

What happened: The next cabinet will encourage foreign investment, but limitations placed on the next PM and competition over ministries can impact business and investment.

Why it matters: Investors will have to watch for changes in the oil, finance and security ministries.

What happens next: The possible ministerial changes could create multiple centers of power that investors will need to navigate.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev's Constitutional Reforms

What happened: President Tokayev unveiled detailed plans for parliamentary and constitutional reform, including a single-chamber parliament, a vice presidency and new consultative bodies under presidential control.

Why it matters: For investors, the proposals signal continuity and tighter executive oversight rather than liberalization, affecting predictability, decision-making speed and who ultimately controls regulation, the courts and economic policy.

What happens next: The VP appointment and the referendum timeline will signal whether Kazakhstan prioritizes stability or extends political uncertainty.

Nigeria: Tinubu Spends Big on DC Lobbyists

What happened: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s NSA, Nuhu Ribadu, engaged right-leaning Washington lobbyists to strengthen relations with the Trump administration.

Why it matters: Engaging lobbyists speaks to Tinubu’s fear of angering Trump and upsetting a recent reset in relations that has seen the US offering Abuja military support with its security crises.

What happens next: Tinubu wants Ribadu leading engagement with the US in the coming weeks, while Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar’s initiatives stall and ambassadorial nominees await their assignments.

Senegal: U-Turn on Nationalization Ups Risk of Policy Confusion

What happened: The Energy Ministry announced that it did not intend to nationalize the Yakaar-Teranga gas field…two days after it declared that it would.

Why it matters: In addition to underscoring Senegal’s shift towards increasing resource nationalism, the U-turn highlights increasing policy confusion amid internal divisions within the ministry and at the top of the government.

What happens next: We expect the government to continue pushing radical resource nationalism in the oil and gas sector, but implementation will be erratic and require careful engagement strategies from investors.

US: Trump Risks EU Investment Over Greenland

What happened: President Trump (unexpectedly) backed down on his tariff threats over Greenland.

Why it matters: Europe is a go-to punching bag for the president, with potentially damning implications for investors operating in both regions.

What happens next: Trump appeared to be temporarily placated, but it may only be a matter of time before the next confrontation.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

In good news for YPF Chairman and CEO Horacio Marin and Energy and Mining Coordinator Daniel Gonzalez, the INDEC statistics bureau reported an $11.2bn trade surplus for 2025, with the energy sector accounting for $7.8bn or almost 70%.

The figure underlines how much President Javier Milei owes Marin. YPF is not totally responsible, and the policies underlying the surplus predate Milei’s administration and his pro-market vision. Nonetheless, Marin personifies the vision that energy can help turn around the country’s troubled macroeconomics.

Without the energy sector’s contribution, Milei’s political future would have looked much darker during the 2025 midterm election campaign.

Milei quietly acknowledges the impact. While he was originally reluctant to keep Marin on the job and not privatize YPF, now he often appears in public dressed in YPF overalls, including at Davos.

In fact, Milei’s political survival depended in large part on the construction by the previous Peronist administration of the pipeline that brought Vaca Muerta natural gas to central Argentina and reduced the need for imports.

Marin’s next challenge is to complete an oil pipeline (the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur or VMOS) that will potentially double the country’s oil exports by the time Milei runs for reelection in 2027.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.