Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

There is still a heavy focus on the Iran conflict and the ripple effects it is sending through global energy markets, supply chains and regional security environments. From energy infrastructure risks in the South Caucasus to fuel shortages in Southeast Asia and new commercial opportunities for producers outside the Gulf, the crisis continues to reshape the operating environment across multiple regions.

This week's banner image is of Suriname President Jennifer Simons, who features in the Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the page.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Algeria: Hormuz Crisis Offers Opening to Improve on 2022 Missed Opportunities

What happened: The Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global supply crunch across oil, gas, fertilizers and helium. As a producer outside the Gulf, Algeria has gained sudden strategic importance. The crisis echoes 2022, when Europe turned to Algerian energy supplies after Russia disrupted gas exports.

Why it matters: The situation offers Sonatrach another opportunity to increase revenues and market share, particularly in Europe. In 2022, however, years of underinvestment and poor upstream management limited Algeria’s ability to raise exports despite record demand. Capacity constraints, domestic consumption and infrastructure bottlenecks remain key structural limits on Algeria’s response.

What happens next: Sonatrach’s marketing division will maximize returns on existing volumes, especially in Mediterranean LNG spot markets. However, upstream capacity limits and maintenance disruptions at liquefaction plants will restrict export growth. Algeria’s upside therefore depends largely on how long Hormuz disruptions persist and whether elevated energy prices endure for months.

Azerbaijan: Pipeline Security Fears Grow Amid Iran Regional Escalation

What happened: Iran-related tensions have spilled into Azerbaijan following drone strikes in the Nakhchivan exclave and the discovery of an alleged Iran-linked sabotage plot targeting infrastructure. Azerbaijan briefly suspended cargo traffic across the Iranian border before reopening it. Authorities also raised security alerts while investigating threats against energy assets and diplomatic targets.

Why it matters: The alleged sabotage plot targeting the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline highlights the vulnerability of the Caspian export corridor. BTC is a key route supplying oil to European markets and a critical asset for Western energy companies. Rising hybrid threats increase security risks and potential operational disruptions for investors operating across Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure.

What happens next: Azerbaijan will likely tighten security around pipelines and strategic infrastructure while coordinating closely with Turkey on crisis management. At the same time, Baku will continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran to avoid escalation. The government’s strategy will focus on protecting energy exports while preventing the regional conflict from spreading into the South Caucasus.

China: Iran War is a Boon & a Shakeout for China’s Solar Industry

What happened: Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased interest in renewable energy across emerging markets seeking to reduce fuel import costs. Chinese solar manufacturers are benefiting from rising demand for relatively cheap photovoltaic technology.

Why it matters: China dominates global solar manufacturing and exported nearly 250 GW of panels in 2025. Higher fossil-fuel prices strengthen the economics of solar power in emerging markets priced out of LNG. However, China’s industry faces internal pressure from severe overcapacity and collapsing panel prices caused by intense competition among domestic producers.

What happens next: Continued disruption to Gulf energy and chemical feedstocks could raise costs for China’s solar manufacturing sector, concentrated in eastern industrial provinces. Some producers are already cutting output as input prices rise. Higher costs and weaker demand could accelerate consolidation while Chinese firms expand manufacturing and project development in overseas markets.

Cote d'Ivoire: US Security Assistance Signals Improving Relations

What happened: Senior Ivorian military officials, led by Armed Forces chief Lassina Doumbia, visited the Pentagon to discuss expanded US security assistance. The talks focused on military modernization, intelligence cooperation, cyber defense, and countering disinformation, marking a renewed phase of engagement after months of diplomatic tension between Washington and Abidjan.

Why it matters: The engagement signals that Cote d’Ivoire remains an important US partner in West Africa despite recent diplomatic friction. Strengthening security ties helps Washington counter Russian influence and jihadist expansion from the Sahel while protecting regional mining interests and strategic infrastructure that are increasingly exposed to cross-border instability.

What happens next: The US will likely deepen security cooperation with Cote d’Ivoire through intelligence sharing, training programs, and potential deployment of surveillance assets in the north. While this will strengthen US influence and benefit American businesses, it is unlikely to significantly reduce jihadist threats spreading from the Sahel.

Greece: Mitsotakis’s Middle East Gamble Has Implications for Energy Projects

What happened: The Iran conflict has created a political and strategic challenge for the Greek government as Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis prepares for elections in just over a year. Athens has responded by deploying military assets to the eastern Mediterranean, seeking to reinforce regional security and protect its position within emerging energy and infrastructure projects.

Why it matters: Greece is pursuing several major energy initiatives, including offshore hydrocarbon exploration and LNG infrastructure linked to the Vertical Corridor. Escalation in the Middle East risks diverting political attention, raising security tensions with Turkey and slowing investment momentum. Delays would weaken Greece’s ambition to position itself as a regional energy hub.

What happens next: If the conflict ends quickly, Mitsotakis could regain focus on advancing energy projects and strengthen Greece’s regional standing. A prolonged conflict would strain government resources, heighten domestic political criticism and increase the risk of regional tensions, potentially delaying or undermining key energy developments and complicating the government’s reelection prospects.

India: Only Hormuz Safe Passage Can Fix LPG Shortage

What happened: India is facing an LPG supply crunch after Gulf shipments were disrupted by the war in Iran and restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, India’s largest supplier, has halted exports, while the government is prioritizing household consumption by limiting industrial use and asking domestic producers to increase output.

Why it matters: The disruption affects a politically sensitive energy source used by 333 million households for cooking and by roughly 8 million workers in the restaurant industry. Prolonged shortages risk political pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, potential protests over food access and employment, and economic disruption across hospitality and small businesses.

What happens next: The key signpost is whether India can secure safe passage for its vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Limited shipments could ease the shortage temporarily. Without access, the crisis may deepen, forcing greater reliance on alternative suppliers such as the United States while accelerating India’s push to diversify energy imports.

Iraq: Hakim’s Political Support Has a Price

What happened: Shi’a leader Ammar al-Hakim has increased his political leverage by opposing Nouri al-Maliki’s bid for prime minister and signaling support for Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. His positioning between Washington and Iraqi Shi’a factions has elevated his influence within the Coordination Framework as government formation negotiations intensify.

Why it matters: Hakim is likely to demand major energy-sector influence in return for backing Sudani. Control of the Ministry of Oil, SOMO, or Basra Oil Company would give his Hikma movement substantial leverage over Iraq’s most important economic sector and key patronage networks.

What happens next: Hakim will push aggressively for control of the Oil Ministry or related energy institutions as negotiations over the next government continue. Asaib Ahl al-Haq is likely to resist Hikma dominance in the sector, forcing Hakim to offer concessions such as support for security or ministerial portfolios to secure broader Shi’a backing.

Kazakhstan: Pipeline Project Could Reshape National Energy Balance and Russia’s Leverage

What happened: Kazakhstan and Gazprom agreed on a technical work plan to advance Russian gas imports and outlined a tentative January 2030 launch for the Ishim–Astana pipeline. The project would deliver Russian gas to northern Kazakhstan, where rising demand and limited domestic supply are creating growing risks of energy shortages.

Why it matters: The pipeline could stabilize gas supply for Astana and surrounding industrial regions, supporting power generation and economic development. However, it would deepen Kazakhstan’s structural dependence on Russian gas at a time when Astana is seeking to balance energy security with strategic autonomy from Moscow.

What happens next: Negotiations will focus on financing, pricing and route design before a final investment decision is taken. If these issues are resolved, the project could proceed broadly on schedule. Delays or disagreements could slow construction and force Kazakhstan to rely more heavily on domestic infrastructure expansion.

United States: Reevaluating Clean Energy Trends for the AI Age

What happened: The Trump administration proposed requiring AI and data-center developers to bring new power generation behind the meter to protect ratepayers from rising electricity demand. At the same time, hyperscale technology firms are adjusting energy strategies as the scale of AI infrastructure makes traditional renewable credit accounting and grid-based clean energy claims less credible.

Why it matters: The explosive growth of AI data centres is reshaping clean-energy markets. Hyperscalers increasingly require reliable, continuous power rather than intermittent renewables alone. This favors firm low-carbon generation such as nuclear, geothermal, hydropower, and natural gas with carbon capture, while weakening the investment case for projects dependent on renewable energy credits.

What happens next: Investment flows are likely to move towards power sources that can deliver constant clean generation directly to large industrial consumers. Nuclear, geothermal, and gas with carbon capture are positioned to gain. Wind, solar, and batteries may face increasing political resistance, regulatory scrutiny, and difficulty competing for hyperscaler demand.

Vietnam: Supply Shock to Impact Both Upstream & Downstream Sectors

What happened: The Middle East conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have rapidly tightened Vietnam’s fuel market. Gasoline and diesel prices have surged while panic buying has strained supply. With domestic refineries covering only about 70% of demand and national reserves lasting roughly a week, the crisis has quickly become a domestic energy-security problem.

Why it matters: Vietnam remains structurally dependent on imported crude and refined products, leaving it exposed to global supply shocks. Rising fuel prices threaten inflation, manufacturing costs and public sentiment. Hanoi has already cut import tariffs and tapped stabilization funds, but prolonged disruption would strain fiscal resources and force politically sensitive price increases.

What happens next: Expect a more interventionist energy policy. Authorities will intensify market monitoring, emergency fuel procurement and pressure on domestic refiners to maintain output. Over the medium term, Hanoi is likely to expand strategic reserves, accelerate domestic upstream production and promote alternatives such as EVs and biofuels to reduce import dependence.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Suriname President Jennifer Simons said in a national address the government would take steps to insulate citizens against the worst impacts of the Iran conflict.

She said the government will speed up relief steps to protect households and social stability. Child benefit will rise to SRD 250, while pensioners, persons with disabilities, and poor households will get SRD 1,000. Civil servants will receive SRD 1,500, and teachers SRD 2,500, all by the end of March.

In our view, Simons had little choice but to get out in front of the issue appear proactive. This move will strengthen her image and confidence in the government’s response.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.