Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image is of Geordin Hill-Lewis, whose election as leader of the Democratic Alliance at the party's federal congress will reset dynamics within the Government of National Unity with the ANC and may trigger a cabinet reshuffle.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Brazil: Workers' Party Proposes New SOE and Production Sharing for Critical Minerals

What happened: The Workers Party (PT) introduced legislation to create a new state-owned enterprise to control the critical minerals sector, the Brazilian Rare Earth Mining Company (Terrabras).

Why it matters: The proposed bill would also grant Terrabras at least a 50% production sharing stake in all critical mineral ventures.

What happens next: President Lula and election competitors Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado will continue campaigning on critical minerals, treating it as a referendum on whether the country should cooperate with Washington.

Canada: Liberals Will Gain Majority After Another Conservative Defection

What happened: The Conservative Party suffered another major loss this week, as MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor to the Liberals.

Why it matters: The Liberals will soon have free rein to advance their agenda, which will accelerate legislation and other processes; however, this will also include policies that may not be ideal for investors.

What happens next: The Conservatives now face three years in opposition with no chance to force an early election or significantly amend government bills.

Cyprus: Videogate Escalates As Black Cube Steps Forward, but President Hangs Back

What happened: Israeli intelligence firm Black Cube confirmed it conducted the covert operation behind the Videogate scandal, stating it has cooperated with Cypriot authorities. President Christodoulides has yet to comment.

Why it matters: The scandal comes ahead of Cyprus’s EU presidency and upcoming parliamentary elections, amplifying governance risk perceptions for energy investors.

What happens next: With the investigation extended and political pressure mounting, regulatory caution may continue to slow approvals for strategic infrastructure and upstream developments.

Greece: Greece Moves from Theory to Drill

What happened: Greece confirmed February 2027 as the target date for its first offshore exploration well in 40 years.

Why it matters: The Hormuz crisis has structurally repriced East Med hydrocarbons and demonstrated that even a temporary closure can quickly disrupt Gulf supply, attaching a strategic premium to reserves within the EU’s near orbit.

What happens next: The first signpost to watch is the April rig contract, followed by EIA approval.

Iraq: Premiership Race is Narrowing

What happened: Faiq Zaydan is pushing forward Bassim al-Badri as his proxy for Iraq’s next prime minister, and Badri seems to be surpassing Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as the frontrunner.

Why it matters: With an increasingly powerful Zaydan in support, even a "gray man" like Badri could achieve a degree of independence from militia factions and make Iraq safer from sanctions risks.

What happens next: 12 April is probably too soon for a new PM, but there is a good chance the next premier will be seated before May.

Kuwait: Consulate Storming Highlights Persistent Militia Threat to Kuwait

What happened: An unknown rocket attack in southern Iraq, allegedly launched from the direction of Kuwait, resulted in PMF-backed protesters storming the Kuwaiti consulate in Basra.

Why it matters: Coming after several Iraqi militia attacks on the emirate as part of the Iran war, the storming highlights the militias’ long-running threat to Kuwait, separate from the conflict.

What happens next: We do not expect this threat to subside even over the long term, with Iraqi militia antipathies toward Kuwait posing unique security threats related to the Iran war in the short term.

Nigeria: Boulos Backs Tinubu’s Fast-Track Terror Trials

What happened: US Senior Advisor on African Affairs Massad Boulos commended the Tinubu government for convicting hundreds of Islamist militants in expedited trials.

Why it matters: His comments came amid high sensitivity around US-Nigeria relations, with the Tinubu government working hard to please the Trump administration and nervous about missteps that could catalyze US support for opposition parties in next year’s elections.

What happens next: There is scope for Tinubu officials to bend the legal process or take extrajudicial actions to keep Trump on side in the run-up to elections. This could cause reputational problems for US investors or increase the risk of host community pushback on US interests.

Oman: Post-Ceasefire, Oman Navigates Hormuz Confusion and GCC Pressures

What happened: Disputes between the US and Iran over the ceasefire agreement announced this week leave Oman in a bind around its own status and that of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: How the ceasefire evolves and whether Iran allows a resumption of Hormuz traffic have major implications for Oman’s economic trajectory and diplomatic relations with GCC neighbors.

What happens next: Over the next two weeks, Oman must act decisively if its interests are not to be over-ridden in the final form of the ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations.

South Africa: Cabinet Reshuffle Looms Under New DA Leadership

What happened: As widely expected, Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis was elected leader of the Democratic Alliance at the party’s federal congress.

Why it matters: The DA leadership change will reset dynamics within the Government of National Unity with the ANC and may trigger a cabinet reshuffle.

What happens next: We expect Hill-Lewis not to join the cabinet, but rather designate a DA minister as his representative.

Suriname: Iran War Raises Inflation Risk, but Also Gives Government Fiscal Room

What happened: The government responded to the Iran war-driven oil shock by capping pump prices, activating a crisis structure and preparing targeted support.

Why it matters: The immediate risk is inflation and subsidy pressure rather than fuel shortages, but higher oil prices also improve the state’s cash outlook and could fund support for lower-income households — if managed with discipline.

What happens next: Investors should watch whether or not the price cap holds, social support becomes more targeted and Finance Minister Adelien Wijnerman preserves fiscal control as political pressure for broader relief rises.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

ALNAFT President Samir Bekhti announced that the upstream licensing agency has issued a general exploration license to BP for Algeria's eastern basins, confirming the British firm's return after a three-year absence.

BP had been present in Algeria for decades before it sold its remaining gas assets to ENI in 2023.

Bekhti carefully timed the announcement of BP's return in an effort to send a positive signal to other upstream investors. It comes as ALNAFT prepares to launch a new bid round on 19 April.

ALNAFT’s leaders want to improve upon the results of the 2024 bid round, which closed last year with five of six blocks awarded amid lukewarm investor interest.

This is a concrete win for Bekhti and one that sets the stage for more victories to come as the new round proceeds.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.