Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting — if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Iranian politician Ali Shamkhani, whose daughter's lavish wedding has caused media and public outcry — threatening the position of the key Khamenei ally.

Country Insights Roundup

Canada: Carney’s First Budget Promises Big Infrastructure Investments

What happened: Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered his minority government’s first budget, and an opposition MP crossed the floor.

Why it matters: The budget promises massive infrastructure investments but will only pass if Carney can convince two more lawmakers to join his party.

What happens next: We believe this will likely happen, giving the PM a majority to get his budget across the finish line and remain in power.

Iran: Shamkhani Survives Character Assassination Attempt in Rising Elite Battle

What happened: A leaked video of the lavish and seemingly Western-style wedding of Ali Shamkhani’s daughter caused media and public outcry.

Why it matters: Beyond threatening the position of a key Khamenei ally, it exposes intensifying elite infighting.

What happens next: Despite Khamenei's preference for internal calm, targeted tit-for-tat attacks will intensify as key players vie for power.

Kazakhstan: KMG Eyes Gains as Lukoil Retreats Under Sanctions

What happened: Lukoil agreed to sell its foreign subsidiaries to Gunvor, but key Kazakh assets remain under negotiation and subject to US sanctions and local partner review, especially KMG.

Why it matters: This marks a rare chance for KMG and possibly its partners to expand their upstream footprint, and for non-Russian crude to gain market share in Turkey and elsewhere.

What happens next: Two signposts to watch are whether OFAC extends the wind-down license after 21 November and if KMG moves to exercise its rights over Lukoil stakes in Kazakhstan.

Mexico: What the Latest Political Killing Means for Business

What happened: An outspoken mayor in western Mexico was assassinated after leading a hard-line campaign against organized crime.

Why it matters: The killing sparked immediate political fallout, undermining President Sheinbaum’s security narrative, exposing persistent cartel control in specific regions and raising operational and political risks for investors as extortion and subnational instability continue to rise.

What’s next: Sheinbaum’s newly announced Peace Plan for Michoacan will be a test of Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch’s strategy, as its success or failure will shape security dynamics and federal-state coordination.

Mozambique: Chapo Pitches Mozambique to Vance

What happened: President Daniel Chapo met US Vice President JD Vance at the White House to relaunch and deepen bilateral ties.

Why it matters: This was the second time in two months that Chapo visited the US, signaling that he prioritizes ties with Washington — and that the Trump administration is game.

What happens next: A signpost to watch is the level of engagement with the US International Development Finance Corporation; Transport and Logistics Minister Joao Matlombe will play a key role.

Namibia: Kapofi Replacing Ithete Brings Temporary Relief

What happened: President NNN abruptly dismissed Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy Natangwe Ithete for undisclosed reasons, appointing Defense Minister Frans Kapofi as acting replacement.

Why it matters: Ithete’s removal will likely reassure investors — his combative style and calls for greater state control had raised concerns about policy stability and damaged investor confidence. Meanwhile, Kapofi is regarded as a steady and trusted hand, although he lacks experience on energy issues.

What happens next: Kapofi’s appointment is widely seen as an interim measure while NNN weighs options for a permanent appointment. Although his diplomatic style may ease tensions, uncertainty over leadership and delays in implementing key reforms are expected to persist in the short term.

Nigeria: Trump Threatens Nigeria: Christian Persecution Narrative Masks Complex Reality

What happened: US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Nigeria, citing persecution of its Christian population.

Why it matters: This marks a sharp deterioration in the bilateral relationship; there are also tensions over deportations and Nigeria’s robust trade relations with China.

What happens next: Tinubu will lean into the diversity of his government and family and rush a heavy-hitting ambassador into Nigeria’s empty DC post in hopes of avoiding a Ramaphosa-style Oval Office reprimand.

Russia: Turf War in Rosneft’s Shadow Trader Network

What happened: A turf war inside Rosneft’s shadow trading network was revealed in late October, as intermediaries advanced their agendas by exposing one another’s ties to the company and the Kremlin to trigger Western sanctions.

Why it matters: The feud reveals fractures in CEO Igor Sechin’s once-disciplined patronage system, undermining his position in the Kremlin.

What happens next: Sechin will attempt to consolidate Rosneft’s trading empire, purging unreliable intermediaries while fending off encroachment from security actors who will seek oversight and rents in the name of security and discipline.

United States: US Climate Threats Show Fragility of LNG Promises With Europe

What happened: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi sent a letter to the EU regarding the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and how it might affect LNG shipments.

Why it matters: The US is worried that the CSDDD and its net-zero transition plans would open US firms to legal liability and compliance costs for any business activity. It could especially make LNG uncompetitive in a region that was supposed to be a major buyer of US fuels.

What happens next: Neither side has an interest in a conflict, nor in backing down. The EU will likely engage in some fudging or punting on the matter, but imports of US LNG will not reach the promised $250mn regardless.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Kazakhstan State Counselor, Yerlan Karin

State Counselor Yerlan Karin told news media that Kazakhstan will move to a unicameral parliament with deputies chosen by party lists.

He announced a schedule for review, with proposals due by 15 November and a second session in late November or early December. Other signals indicate an eventual 2027 referendum on the changes.

The administration presents this as inclusive modernization and a step toward e-Parliament. Opposition and media critics say the outcome looks pre-ordained and point to concerns, including less space for independents, and that digital tools will streamline control rather than accountability.

In our view, the administration already has a clear idea in mind given the working group’s design. It has 30 members, at least six from the presidential administration, leaders of all six Mazhilis parties, several deputies, one senior senator, and a cluster of Akorda-aligned experts.

In the long term, the parliamentary reform means faster lawmaking with more centralized control. The potential downsides include fewer checks on power and a premium on relationships with Akorda and party leaders.

Individually, Karin is emerging as increasingly important thanks to his position leading the parliamentary reform, which, by its nature, feeds into an eventual power transition from Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to his eventual successor.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting — if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.