Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of PSD President Gilberto Kassab, who could tip the balance in Brazil's upcoming elections by supporting Lula or selecting a viable contender capable of beating him in a runoff.

Country Insights Roundup

Algeria: Tebboune's Spending Plans Risk Financial Ruin

What happened: The 2026 budget extends dangerous trends already well established under President Tebboune: massive public spending that far outpaces revenues, especially given stagnating oil receipts.

Why it matters: Algeria's public debt has exploded in recent years, and now mostly sits with a handful of public banks, raising systemic risk for that sector and constraining investment to private business.

What happens next: With elections in 2026, Tebboune is undeterred in expanding handouts. Leaders will press the central bank into printing money to cover the costs, risk inflation, currency devaluation and financial crisis.

Angola: Lobito FInancing is No Silver Bullet

What happened: A joint venture tasked with rehabilitating part of the Lobito Corridor has secured $753mn in external financing from the US.

Why it matters: The new funding comes after months of delays and underscores the barriers towards completion the project faces.

What happens next: Progress will be slow, and South Africa will remain the primary export route for bulk minerals exports from central and southern Africa.

Argentina: Milei Passes 2026 Budget

What happened: Congress passed its first budget bill since President Javier Milei came to office in December 2023.

Why it matters: The debate showed the government team prioritizing negotiation to obtain ample majorities — even at the expense of some of the bill’s fine print.

What happens next: If this pragmatic tack continues, the Milei administration will be able to pass key reforms in the coming two quarters, including changes in labor and tax legislation.

Brazil: Lula Dares Kassab Ahead of Presidential Election

What happened: President Lula called on his fickle allies for endorsements or risk losing their cabinet seats after Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced his presidential candidacy.

Why it matters: Lula indirectly challenged PSD President Gilberto Kassab, who could tip the electoral balance by supporting him or selecting a viable contender capable of winning a runoff with the president.

What happens next: Kassab has options but will need to decide whether to defy or back Lula by the end of April.

Egypt: PM Cements Energy Legacy

What happened: After a four-month delay, the Israeli government greenlit a two-decade gas export extension between the Leviathan partners and Egypt.

Why it matters: Prime Minister Netanyahu took credit for the historic deal, sidelining his energy minister to remind Israelis of his central role in shaping the country’s energy sector.

What happens next: The deal cements the PM’s energy legacy while bolstering regional stability and Israel’s energy security and pro-investment posture. These policies will likely endure regardless of who wins the 2026 elections.

Nigeria: What's Next After US Airstrikes?

What happened: The US launched airstrikes on northwestern Nigeria in what Abuja said was a joint operation aimed at tackling terrorism.

Why it matters: The airstrikes represented a step up in US engagement with Nigeria, part of a three-strand approach to strengthen ties in a dynamic that could benefit US energy investors.

What happens next: Further US military action in the Nigerian north is likely, bringing political risks for the Tinubu administration as it simultaneously leans into the US’s commercial diplomacy with an eye on dealmaking opportunities for the president’s allies.

Vietnam: PVN Boss Takes the Helm at Super-Ministry

What happened: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh appointed PetroVietnam Chairman Le Manh Hung as Acting Minister of Industry and Trade, placing a career oilman at the top of Vietnam's powerful economic ministry.

Why it matters: Hung's promotion reflects General Secretary To Lam's consolidation of allies in key positions and PVN's rehabilitation as a political force after years of anti-corruption purges.

What happens next: Following Hung's formal confirmation at next month's Party Congress, expect a more investor-friendly policy environment for the energy sector — with PVN positioned to drive Vietnam's energy ambitions.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Angolan Interior Minister Manuel Homem reached a deal with the UK government to accept the repatriation of illegal migrants and criminal offenders. For Homem and Angola, it is a win.

The number of Angolans to be repatriated is unlikely to strain the country’s social services nor increase insecurity. Reaching an agreement conveys the message that Angola is willing to talk over immigration concerns and boosts Homem’s profile.

The deal comes a week after the US State Department partially suspended visa issuance to nationals of 19 countries, including Angola. Homem has sought to convey an image of Angola as improving its border security and control. One recent example is the adoption of chipped passports.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.