Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week's banner image is of Guyana President Irfaan Ali, whose rising profile is featured in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Milei Dives Into Midterms Campaign, but Focus Is on the Day After

What happened: President Javier Milei has formally kick-started hands-on participation in the campaign for the 26 October midterms.

Why it matters: The vote comes amid the administration’s worst economic and political moment, and could become a watershed for major change.

What happens next: Investors should monitor the government’s reaction to the election to weigh whether it strengthens or weakens its sustainability.

Brazil: EPE Launches Consultation on Gas Infrastructure Plan

What happened: The EPE launched a month-long public consultation period to put the final touches on the gas and biomethane infrastructure plan.

Why it matters: More aspirational than set in stone, the plan hopes to guide greater coordination between policymakers, operators and investors to improve the gas midstream and take advantage of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta offtake.

What happens next: After the consultation, the Mines and Energy Ministry will publish the finalized plan, as the administration drives toward expanding gas supply during the upcoming election year.

Greece: Industry Shutdown Threats Draw Government Back to Domestic Energy Woes

What happened: The Mitsotakis administration is in talks to introduce a version of Italy’s “Energy Release” scheme offering lower energy costs for industry.

Why it matters: The politically powerful industrial sector has been piling on the pressure for state support, forcing the government to juggle its priorities once again.

What happens: The competing demands for low-cost energy from different political constituencies will strain both the budget and the administration’s bandwidth, taking some of the shine off its recent bold boasts around global energy deals, and potentially courting a backlash against foreign investors.

Guyana: Ali Shines in UNGA Speech and Time Magazine

What happened: Following his recent reelection victory, President Irfaan Ali delivered a confident performance at the UN and was featured in Time magazine’s list of 100 most influential rising stars.

Why it matters: These developments raise Ali’s — and Guyana’s — international profile, indicate a strengthening alliance with the US and boost the country’s investment appeal. 

What happens next: Throughout Ali’s next term, we expect policy continuity, enhanced security and an upward development trajectory.

India: Big Tax Cuts to Benefit Investors

What happened: India is slashing taxes on a wide range of goods, from household essentials to construction materials and cars.

Why it matters: These moves — which have the potential to increase demand, boost consumption rates, and stimulate economic activity more broadly — should benefit investors by enhancing profit levels.

What happens next: Over the longer term, sluggish government revenue rates and resurgences of inflation could prompt New Delhi to walk back some of these changes.

Iran: Snapback Sanctions Set to Trigger Escalating Elite Infighting

What happened: The UN Security Council reinstated sanctions on Iran under the JCPOA’s snapback provision.

Why it matters: By adding further pressure on the Iranian economy, the sanctions also risk increased escalation as Tehran addresses domestic disagreement and seeks leverage.

What happens next: Diplomatic deadlock and intensifying factional battles await as key stakeholders grapple with the sanctions’ consequences.

Japan: METI Selects 2 projects for Hydrogen Subsidy

What happened: METI announced the first awardees of its flagship Contract-for-Difference (CfD) subsidy for hydrogen and ammonia. The two projects are Toyota Tsusho’s green hydrogen initiative and Resonac’s low-carbon ammonia project.

Why it matters: The announcement reveals METI’s preference for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like manufacturing and steelmaking.

What happens next: The government plans to approve several additional projects within fiscal 2025. METI will need to speed up its award schedule and hope that its budget is enough to meet its target of producing up to 3mn tons of low-carbon hydrogen by 2030.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Sharpens Investor Outreach After UNGA Disappointment

What happened: After a disappointing trip to the UN General Assembly, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev demoted Murat Nurtleu from foreign minister to investment aide, appointed Yermek Kosherbayev to replace him and recalled Ambassador to the US Yerzhan Ashikbayev.

Why it matters: While this concentrates deal-making around the presidency, the moves signal open investor access and policy continuity. They also highlight a weak channel with the US, especially compared to Uzbekistan.

What happens next: We expect additional rotations in the economic and energy teams to further open investors’ access to the government as Tokayev focuses on increasing investment.

Nigeria: Finance Minister Wale Edun Builds Influence in Energy and Beyond

What happened: A strike at Dangote Group and slated revisions to the Petroleum Industry Act signal the growing influence of Wale Edun.

Why it matters: The Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy has been a key IEC interlocutor since the government came to power; recent events suggest that he has Tinubu’s blessing to run large parts of the energy portfolio, which the president nominally holds himself.

What happens next: Energy investors will see Edun’s involvement in more high-level energy initiatives in the coming months, and should expect him to play an integral role in seeking donations from big business for Tinubu’s second-term run.

Russia: Putin’s Budget: Indulging the Military Industrial Complex, Squeezing Energy

What happened: Russia’s 2026–2028 draft budget raises revenues and reforms the budget rule to grow savings. Defense spending is slightly trimmed, but security allocations remain dominant and enjoy flexibility.

Why it matters: The budget reflects Putin’s priority on war financing and social stability. It strengthens Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, protects military industrial interests, but squeezes the energy sector.

What happens next: Expect tighter tax enforcement, ongoing security spending, and more burdens on energy companies, which continue to serve as the stabilizer of last resort.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Egypt Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly

In a win for Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly a real estate subsidiary of Qatar Investment Authority announced plans to invest $4bn to purchase a 20-square-kilometer plot on Egypt's North Coast for tourism development.

The site is located between Alexandria and Ras El-Hikma, the site awarded to the UAE in a landmark $35bn investment deal in March 2024.

Over the past year, Madbouly has been leading a concerted campaign to attract Qatari investment in efforts to diversify Egypt's foreign patrons and strengthen the government’s precarious fiscal health in the face of rising social spending bills and IMF pressure to make potentially costly reforms.

While the Qatari deal is far smaller than the UAE one, it is nonetheless a substantial win for Madbouly's administration and should help cement his reputation if not his seat for the foreseeable future.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.