Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week, our Complementary Read covers the recent unveiling by Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard (pictured in the banner image) and her team of their updated $109bn strategic investment plan for 2026-2030 amid declining crude prices.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Reelected as UNITA Boss, Costa Junior Now Faces Chivukuvuku Challenge

What happened: UNITA reelected Adalberto da Costa Junior as president, defeating Rafael Savimbi, son of the party founder.

Why it matters: Costa Junior wants to lead the opposition in the 2027 elections, but a rising new political force led by the charismatic and ambitious Alberto Chivukuvuku will challenge his ambitions.

What happens next: UNITA will try to unify the opposition to repeat the excellent electoral results of 2022, but cracks are appearing.

Azerbaijan: SOCAR Eyes Armenian Market as Fuel Test Begins

What happened: Georgia approved a one-time, duty-free rail transit of Azerbaijani oil to Armenia, marking Baku’s first-ever direct oil shipment to Yerevan.

Why it matters: This test shipment signals Azerbaijan’s ambition to enter and reshape Armenia’s fuel market, undercutting Russian and Iranian suppliers and boosting SOCAR’s export footprint.

What happens next: Investors should watch whether Georgia imposes high transit fees on future shipments or if Baku shifts toward routing fuel via the TRIPP corridor through southern Armenia.

Canada: Ottawa Vote & BC Ouster Shake Up Pipeline Politics

What happened: The federal Liberal government voted down a Conservative motion supporting the Alberta–British Columbia pipeline, while the BC Conservatives sacked their leader, John Rustad.

Why it matters: The vote in Ottawa attempted to sow division over the project; a new Conservative leader could reverse BC’s anti-pipeline stance if he/she became Premier.

What happens next: We expect similar motions from the Conservatives to try and divide the government.

Cote d'Ivoire: Mining Local Content Will Offer Clues for Oil & Gas

What happened: The government held a local content workshop in Abidjan, pledging to push ahead with its implementation in the mining sector.

Why it matters: This illustrates the growing importance of local content in the natural resource sectors and the increasing parallels between mining and oil and gas.

What happens next: This workshop is likely to be a precursor to the launch of the new mining code due in 2026, which will provide essential clues to oil and gas investors regarding a planned new petroleum code in 2027.

Ghana: Vested Interests Take Precedence in Looming State-Led Takeover of Embattled Oil Block

What happened: The government announced a potential state-led acquisition of indigenous oil company Springfield’s non-performing deepwater oil block, WCTP2.

Why it matters: This signals the state’s willingness to sidestep regulatory best practices to appease vested interests and create an uneven playing field for oil investors in an already polarized sector at the same time President Mahama is pledging increased business friendliness and transparency.

What happens next: Intense political pressure will likely see a deal pushed through, regardless of the outcome of an independent evaluation to determine the commercial viability of the block.

Greece: IPTO Capital Increase Will Gauge Ability to Navigate US-China Rivalry

What happened: PM Mitsotakis has raised the possibility of a share capital increase in state-controlled power grid operator IPTO, in which China State Grid is a minority partner.

Why it matters: The announcement coincides with the opening salvo in Washington’s tug-of-war with Beijing over Greek strategic assets, suggesting that the move is part of a broader geopolitical play to contain Chinese influence in the region.

What happens next: This will be the first live test of the Mitsotakis administration’s ability to juggle its emerging alignment with the US under Trump 2.0 with its existing commitments to China.

Japan: Regional Business Group Pitch Decarbonization Plan

What happened: The Chugoku Economic Federation in western Japan submitted a five-point decarbonization proposal to Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa.

Why it matters: The unified stance of regional business leadership signals a bullish attitude and rising political pressure to link decarbonization with industrial revitalization in one of Japan’s most emissions-heavy industrial complexes, making it pivotal for large-scale CCS deployment.

Why it matters: With three of METI’s nine Advanced CCS Projects located here, Chugoku is positioned to become a national hub for decarbonization technologies.

Mozambique: Rising Cabo Delgado, Nampula Insecurity Threatens Business Operations

What happened: ISM is entrenching itself in Nampula as criminal networks in Cabo Delgado become bolder.

Why it matters: This rising and increasingly unpredictable security risk is driving greater operational uncertainty for businesses in northern Mozambique.

What happens next: We believe the region is entering a new phase of instability that will likely remain until the end of the decade.

South Africa: State-Owned Asset Manager Endorses Gas Strategy

What happened: The Public Investment Corporation approved a Strategy on Natural Gas that includes investing in gas infrastructure projects and addressing the "gas cliff."

Why it matters: As the country's largest asset manager, the PIC holds significant weight when making investment decisions.

What happens next: The strategy, which aligns with the government's general approach, will support gas-related developments, but environmental groups are likely to oppose it.

Yemen: STC Seizure of Hadramawt Oil Fields Upends Yemen Conflict

What happened: UAE-backed STC forces seized control of Saudi-backed Yemeni government-held areas in eastern Yemen, including oil-rich Wadi Hadramawt.

Why it matters: The STC’s takeover and potential declaration of independence — both in direct contravention of Saudi demands — could very well end the ROYG as we know it, introducing several political and military complications for energy investors.

What happens next: We do not expect the STC to retreat under Saudi pressure, although a Saudi-Emirati agreement could halt an independence declaration. In the meantime, there is potential for an AQAP-led insurgency in Wadi Hadramawt.

Complementary Read

Brazil: Chambriard’s Team Replaces Solar and Wind with Ethanol

What happened: Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard presented the strategic investment plan for 2026-2030.

Why it matters: The plan reaffirms the NOC’s commitment to its lucrative pre-salt crude business but also steps back from a solar and wind future envisioned by Chambriard’s predecessor, Jean Paul Prates.

What happens next: Instead, Chambriard’s team will build out a series of biorefineries and make a play to become a major ethanol producer in the coming year.

Click here to read the full article

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Algerian Finance Minister Abdelkrim Bouzred managed to push the government's 2026 draft budget through parliament with minimal amendments.

This is the only step each year that sometimes sees controversy over the state spending plan. The budget now passes to the more pliable Senate, where smooth passage is all but assured.

In the short term, this is good news for Bouzred. In the mid- to long run, it sets up another year of spending beyond the government's means. Only half of the $135bn budget is expected to be covered by revenues.

If recent patterns hold, the remainder will be financed by the public banking sector, which crowds out financing to the private sector, thereby reducing economic growth and diversification.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.