Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week's banner image is of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who features in our Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Links Security Messaging to Zangezur and Energy

What happened: President Aliyev hosted the OTS summit in Gabala, pitching joint military exercises in 2026 and tying peace talks with Armenia to the opening of the Zangezur corridor.

Why it matters: The agenda couples security signaling with corridor build-out and a green energy push, creating near-term opportunities in rail, ports, power links and SOCAR-led partnerships for investors.

What happens next: Keep an eye on Aliyev's meeting with Vladimir Putin, concrete steps on Zangezur and the Middle Corridor projects, and new tenders that bundle logistics upgrades with grid and renewable investments.

Greece: With US Embrace on Maritime Infrastructure, Athens Must Manage China, Shipping Interests

What happened: Athens and Washington are working to deepen their cooperation on maritime infrastructure, focusing on ports, shipyards and the LNG value chain.

Why it matters: The push aligns with the Trump administration's plans to curb Chinese control of strategic facilities while expanding the market for US energy exports — and with Mitsotakis administration efforts to re-engage with Trump 2.0.

What happens next: The agreement gives the Greek shipping industry more leverage over domestic affairs and may speed up the prospect of building onshore facilities for offshore hydrocarbon exploration.

Indonesia: ‘Patriot Bond’ Offtakers Highlight Political Patronage

What happened: Danantara's inaugural $3bn “Patriot Bond” issue to fund energy transition and waste-to-energy projects was fully subscribed by local conglomerates in a nationalist display of public–private partnership.

Why it matters: This signals that political loyalty can secure privileged access to lucrative projects. The scheme provides cheap funding for the Prabowo administration beyond fiscal oversight, to be repaid through hidden concessions.

What happens next: The financing model could entrench an elite-driven financing architecture, making Indonesia’s investment climate less conducive to foreign investors.

Israel: Frenkel’s Tamar Trades Reveal Wider Geopolitical Ambitions

What happened: Three months after selling a 10% stake in the Tamar offshore gas field to SOCAR, Israeli businessman Aaron Frenkel has been reinvesting via a public company, Tamar Petroleum.

Why it matters: The apparently contradictory trades reveal his real motivations — to shepherd the entry of Israel’s strategic partners into its energy sector.

What happens next: We expect Frenkel and his allies to continue buying, expanding their ability to leverage energy partnerships to further Israel’s global ties.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Maps Real Projects From Cyber To Corridors at OTS

What happened: President Tokayev used the OTS summit in Gabala to pitch a Cybersecurity Council, a Digital Innovations Center, energy efficiency cooperation and Middle Corridor upgrades anchored by rail, ports and AI.

Why it matters: These moves create a pipeline of bankable projects for investors in transport, energy and mining, with the Turkic Investment Fund de-risking the early phases and Astana prioritizing standards, compliance, and digitization.

What happens next: The early signposts to watch will be concrete tenders, funding allocations and the launch of the Alem-based digital hub, alongside customs and logistics digitization to cut transit times across the Trans-Caspian route.

Malaysia: A New Deal for East Malaysia

What happened: PM Anwar has pledged to increase the number of parliamentary seats for Sabah and Sarawak.

Why it matters: It’s an old demand with new leverage — East Malaysia’s electoral weight could reshape coalition politics, federal budgets and resource control.

What happens next: Expect studies, committees and slow choreography. The promise buys Anwar some loyalty before elections; real delivery, if any, comes later.

Mexico: New Hydrocarbons Regulation Reinforces State Dominance

What happened: The government finally published the long-delayed Regulation of the Hydrocarbons Sector Law, granting SENER sweeping control over permitting, mixed-development projects and oversight of the oil and gas value chain.

Why it matters: The regulation formalizes joint projects between Pemex and private partners but embeds them in a centralized, compliance-heavy framework that reinforces state dominance.

What happens next: The Finance and Economy Ministries, along with ASEA, must issue complementary rules on fiscal treatment, national-content standards, and environmental compliance. Given Mexico’s bureaucratic pace, full regulatory clarity will likely take shape by 2026.

South Korea: Energy Governance at a Crossroads

What happened: The Lee administration unveiled a public-sector restructuring plan that will impact state-run power generation companies.

Why it matters: The wave of potential mergers and consolidations directly relates to South Korea’s energy transition strategy, as the public sector still dominates coal-based power generation; it could also reshape the LNG and CCS industries.

What happens next: A signpost to watch is KEPCO, which will either regain its formerly integrated role or become the platform for a new streamlined decarbonization entity.

Turkey: Turkish Energy Operations in Iraq Move South

What happened: Turkey is pivoting its Iraq strategy southward, with ENKA’s $1bn contract in Basra embedding Turkish contractors in the country’s largest energy modernization project.

Why it matters: By anchoring itself in processing, power and logistics around Basra, Ankara is hedging against the uncertainty of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline while positioning for future transit upside.

What happens next: For investors, Turkish firms with long experience in Iraq and integrated EPC plus security offerings offer the most resilient exposure to Iraq’s reconstruction and energy growth.

United States: This Government Shutdown is Different — 3 Ways Out

What happened: The federal government shut down all non-essential functions on 1 October.

Why it matters: Unlike past shutdowns, this one could spark a realignment of how the federal government works.

What happens next: The most likely scenario is that it all ends soon, but this shutdown could also trigger the end of the Senate filibuster or even usher in de facto executive control over the budget and politicized federal funding.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Chinese Premier Li Qiang

Li Qiang will lead the Chinese delegation to attend the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea. This will be his first visit to North Korea since becoming Premier in 2023 and the highest-level Chinese visit since 2019.

The trip follows Kim Jong Un’s September visit to China - the first since 2019 - and further underscores the growing significance of China/North Korea relations and renewed high-level communication between the two countries.

Li’s visit, coming after his 2024 trip to Vietnam, completes his diplomatic circuit with China’s historic communist allies and signals Xi Jinping’s increasing trust in him to represent China in sensitive, high-profile engagements abroad.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.