Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week’s banner image is of Canadian trade envoy Dominic LeBlanc, whose efforts to secure progress on tariff relief and advance Canada’s broader economic diversification agenda are covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: President Balances Reset with Moscow and Loyalty at Home

• What happened: Vladimir Putin publicly apologized to President Aliyev for the AZAL plane downing, offering compensation; the two leaders staged symbolic gestures to signal de-escalation.
• Why it matters: The bilateral thaw reopens the door for pragmatic trade with Russia but confirms that Azerbaijan’s long-term alignment has shifted toward Turkey and the US.
• What happens next: We expect Baku to maintain selective economic cooperation with Moscow while tightening political control at home and deepening military and energy coordination with Western partners.

Canada: LeBlanc Aims to Unlock US Tariffs Deal on Energy, Defense and Minerals

What happened: PM Carney met Trump in Washington, leaving behind his Canada-US trade envoy Dominic LeBlanc to continue working-level discussions.

Why it matters: Canada wants to lift steel and aluminum tariffs and diversify its economy ahead of the USMCA renegotiation in 2026.

What happens next: Carney will likely get a deal on tariffs before the end of the year, with LeBlanc aiming to warm up the US with new concepts for cross-border energy and mineral flows.

Greece: LNG-Fueled Exports Surge Validates Gas Hub Strategy

What happened: US-led LNG imports surged by over 80% in 2025, feeding a sevenfold increase in pipeline exports to eastern and central Europe.

Why it matters: The trend was celebrated in Athens, where state-owned DEPA is being groomed as a regional guarantor of energy security to break the Russian gas stranglehold on former Eastern Bloc states.

What happens next: Political backing for the project, which has the added benefit of aligning with Trump’s trade agenda, will continue to outweigh the questionable commercial rationale for investing in LNG and pipeline infrastructure, as well as the accompanying high energy prices.

Guinea-Bissau: Courts Clear the Way for Embalo’s Second Term

What happened: The Supreme Court of Justice excluded the opposition PAIGC party and Domingos Simoes Pereira from the November presidential and legislative elections.

Why it matters: The ruling favors President Embalo’s bid for a second term and his chances of forming a loyal government.

What happens next: The PAIGC and Pereira will not go out without a fight, raising the risk of civil unrest and even a postponement of the vote.

Guyana: Opposition Leader’s US Legal Woes Help PPP Dominate Parliament

What happened: Azruddin Mohamed was indicted in the US for fraud and money laundering.

Why it matters: Mohamed is the presumptive leader of the opposition, and the indictment weakens his position.

What happens next: As his extradition process plays out, the government will do everything it can to assert its dominance in parliament.

Iran: Tehran Braces for Renewed Risks to Energy Production and Exports

What happened: Petroleum Minister Paknejad has struck a confident tone about the sector’s prospects, despite the UN snapback sanctions and new US sanctions targeting Iranian exports.

Why it matters: Tehran wants to portray business as usual, but will face challenges in managing the tightening of sanctions and the risk of renewed armed conflict.

What happens next: Iran will prioritize engagements with existing Chinese buyers alongside new workarounds for continued exports, while preparing for further physical risks.

Iran: US Targets LPG Trade

What happened: The US government sanctioned a few dozen tankers and entities involved in Iran’s LPG exports, including companies in India, China and the UAE.

Why it matters: The US continues to target vessels and financiers involved in Iran’s illicit energy trade, adding more sanctions several times a month, maintaining — but not yet increasing — pressure on Iranian revenues.

What happens next: The steady set of sanctions designations will continue until negotiations resume. Major revenue losses would require designating Chinese ports and banks, something the US remains unwilling to do.

Russia: Performative UK Sanctions on Russian Oil

What happened: The UK sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, along with several Chinese port-affiliated entities processing Russian oil and gas.

Why it matters: As UK sanctions affect only UK financial and commercial links, including insurance, these measures are mostly symbolic; however, they could be a precursor to other G7 sanctions.

What happens next: Without US involvement, the measures will have less impact on Russia’s energy buyers, adding friction but likely failing to reduce volumes significantly.

South Africa: Coal Sector Optimistic Over Future Contribution

What happened: Coal proponents are showing growing optimism over the role it can play in the energy transition through efforts to reduce environmental costs.

Why it matters: A delayed transition from coal will undermine the business case for gas.

What happens next: We expect the coal lobby to maintain its push for government support for coal mining and coal-fired power, including further life extensions to Eskom’s plants.

Uruguay: Montevideo Port Labor Dispute Exposes Internal Challenges for Orsi

What happened: A labor dispute between terminal workers and the operator froze about 70% of cargo movement at the Port of Montevideo for a week.

Why it matters: The ruling Frente Amplio is led by a former union leader, but his influence has not been enough to contain growing labor unrest in Uruguay.

What happens next: To resolve the standoff, President Orsi will need to take a more visible role in addressing long-running disputes and reducing political costs with one of his coalition’s key support bases.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Buenos Aires province Governor Axel Kicillof

According to a new poll, Buenos Aires province Governor Axel Kicillof is Argentina’s most popular politician. Former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner came in second, followed by President Javier Milei in third place. However, the results showed that all three politicians have higher rejection than approval ratings.

Kicillof emerged as a leading opposition on 7 September, when his candidates crushed Milei’s by 14 percentage points in the local election in the province of Buenos Aires, a Peronist bastion. To many, he is the obvious Peronist candidate to fight Milei in 2027.

In our view, the poll is concerning for investors because it signals a deepening polarization over the next two years, which will discourage political negotiation toward further reform. A good result in the 26 October midterms would embolden the Peronists to become even more confrontational against Milei.

Like Milei, Kicillof is an economist and highly ideological. While they both support the development of Vaca Muerta and YPF’s role in leading it, their common ground ends there. A presidential race between them in 2027 would expose fundamental lack of agreement about the country’s economic course.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.