Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image shows staff members welcoming guests to the Tianjin Binhai International Airport ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit, which features in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Algeria: Tebboune Replaces PM in Face of Transport Sector Scandal

What happened: President Abdelmadjid Tebboune dismissed Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui after a fatal bus crash galvanized criticism of the government and revealed multiple layers of incompetence.

Why it matters: Tebboune's pick of Industry Minister Sifi Ghrieb as interim PM indicates that the change was made hastily and under pressure, reflecting the disarray in which the administration finishes the summer.

What happens next: The president hopes to turn Algerians' attention to the future and will likely soon announce a substantial government reshuffle, with Ghrieb unlikely to retain the premiership.

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Deepens SCO Ties Despite India and Expands Chinese Partnerships

What happened: President Aliyev used the SCO summit in Tianjin to strengthen Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with China, expand business deals in transport and renewables and advance regional normalization.

Why it matters: The summit highlighted Azerbaijan’s pivot away from Moscow and closer to Beijing and Ankara, opening fresh opportunities in infrastructure, energy and digital projects.

What happens next: Expect new cranes in Alat, more Chinese cargo through Azerbaijan and green energy ventures as Baku pushes the Middle Corridor and Zangezur links to full capacity.

Greece: GSI Tough Talk Escalates as PM Gambles on Polling Turnaround

What happened: The foreign minister sparked a war of words with Ankara after stating that Athens is ready to respond “in the field” to any interference in laying the GSI cable to Cyprus.

Why it matters: This comes as PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis prepares to gamble on the economy to improve New Democracy’s dismal polling numbers.

What happens next: We expect the rhetoric tying big energy projects to the defense of national sovereignty to escalate as the embattled Mitsotakis attempts to chart a path to the conclusion of his second term.

Iran: Khamenei Nixes Negotiations, but Domestic Political Battle Continues

What happened: In a recent speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei poured cold water on the prospect of negotiations with the US.

Why it matters: President Masoud Pezeshkian's centrist government had been exploring renewed engagement with the US and key European powers under mounting hardliner criticism.

What happens next: Although Khamenei’s strategic directives used to mark key pivots or settle internal disputes, this may serve as a tactical pause while key stakeholders regroup and reposition in factional battles.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Signs $15bn in Deals in China

What happened: President Tokayev signed $15bn worth of deals across multiple sectors at the Kazakhstan-China Business Council following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

Why it matters: The agreements tie Chinese capital to Kazakhstan’s rail, energy and mining infrastructure and show Astana’s intent to anchor the Middle Corridor as a dependable Eurasian route.

What happens next: Execution risks remain, including rail bottlenecks, energy supply and local content delivery. However, successful follow-through could open more space for Western investors alongside China.

Namibia: Ithete’s Tightening Grip Poses Risks for Investors

What happened: Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy Natangwe Ithete is expanding his influence across the extractives sector, including pushing for majority Namibian ownership in mining, assuming ministerial control over Namcor and retaining licensing powers.

Why it matters: His interventions increase policy uncertainty and politicize the NOC; they also risk deterring investments at a time when IECs are weighing long-term commitments.

What happens next: Foreign investors should brace for tougher local ownership requirements, greater Namcor involvement and licensing decisions shaped by political rather than business priorities.

Nigeria: NNPC GCEO Under Attack; Smear Campaign Threatens Reform Agenda

What happened: CEO Bayo Ojulari said the NNPC's management is under attack as he implements wide-ranging reforms.

Why it matters: The critical reports around Ojulari’s leadership are distracting him and stalling key appointments that would bring in welcome talent at the top. They also speak to strong vested interests within Nigeria’s political and business elite who want to see Ojulari fail.

What happens next: Unless Ojulari makes peace with his critics within Nigeria’s energy unions and senior NNPC leadership, especially Chief Commercial Officer Roland Ewubare, the campaign against the CEO will likely continue, frustrating his progress and disrupting his reform agenda.

Russia: Gazprom CEO Benefits from China Pipeline Announcement

What happened: Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller has announced that Gazprom and CNPC signed a “legally binding” agreement for the Power of Siberia-2 project.

Why it matters: The agreement is neither binding nor definitive, in our view, but represents a personal triumph for Miller, ensuring his ability to stay at Gazprom’s helm for the foreseeable future.

What happens next: Gazprom will commence pipeline construction right away, regardless of the timing of the final agreement with CNPC.

Uruguay: Oil Exploration to Move Forward Despite Political Risks

What happened: A national human rights body asked the Ministry of Environment to suspend all activities linked to offshore seismic prospecting.

Why it matters: The Ministry faces pressure from environmentalists and the base of the ruling leftwing Frente Amplio, which is widely opposed to Uruguay becoming an oil-producing country.

What happens next: We believe the government will continue down the long road toward oil exploration and crude independence at the risk of undermining both Uruguay's eco-friendly brand and part of its domestic political support.

Vietnam: SBV Has Little Wiggle Room on Weak Dong

What happened: The Vietnamese dong has depreciated 4% against the US dollar in the first half of 2025 as the SBV faces pressure to loosen monetary policy amid trade uncertainties and capital flight.

Why it matters: While the weaker dong may temporarily help exporters, it heightens inflation risks, raises import costs and makes foreign-denominated debt pricier just as Vietnam embarks on mega infrastructure projects. It also revives the specter of US scrutiny given Vietnam’s past designation as a currency manipulator.

What happens next: Policymakers must choose between maintaining aggressive growth targets and preserving macroeconomic stability, with the SBV's depleted foreign reserves limiting its maneuverability.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Head of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission: Gbenga Komolafe

Gbenga Komolafe's Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) hired a new head of media and strategic communications, the journalist Eniola Akinkuotu.

Akinkuotu was until recently the chief Nigeria political correspondent for The Africa Report, where he frequently wrote unflattering pieces about the workings of Bola Ahmed Tinubu's government. He is extremely well networked, including inside Aso Villa.

We understand Komolafe personally involved himself in Akinkuotu's appointment, which confers access to sensitive materials and senior officials, including ministers.

While there is no question as to Akinkuotu's qualifications, we believe 2027 electioneering may have played a part in his appointment. The APC has a long history of using high-level media and communications appointments as a way to neutralize the threat of critical press coverage at election time.

As talk continues to circulate about Komolafe's possible ouster from the upstream regulator, we think he may have hired a high-profile Tinubu critic to show value to the president and buy himself some time.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.