Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Naftali Bennett, whose emergence as the top contender to unseat Israel's incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu in next year's elections is covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Unexpected Defeat in BA Strengthens Peronists and Forces Milei into Crisis Mode

What happened: The Peronist opposition scored a commanding 13-point victory in the local elections in Buenos Aires province, Argentina’s largest electoral district.

Why it matters: The result questions one key assumption fueling the President Javier Milei administration: that the public was on his side.

What happens next: The government enters crisis mode until the 26 October elections, hoping to score better numbers in the national vote. However, it will have to tone down confrontation and seek more compromise to advance its reform program.

Canada: Carney Calls Further US Trade Talks Counterproductive Ahead of USMCA Review

What happened: Prime Minister Mark Carney has deemed further trade negotiations with the US as counterproductive ahead of next year’s USMCA review.

Why it matters: Carney made it clear that US-Canada relations will not be business as usual going forward, deeming the current tensions a “rupture.”

What happens next: The Canadian government is implementing policies to detach key sectors from the US market to build the country’s resilience and economic independence, though this will likely come with job losses in the transition period.

Cyprus: EPPO Targets Political Class in GSI Investigation

What happened: The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating the GSI project over suspected misuse of EU funds.

Why it matters: We have learned of three possible lines of inquiry implicating the political class, some of which include President Christodoulides and EU officials.

What happens next: This and other probes suggest that Cypriot leaders increasingly sign away national rights for projects that never get off the ground.

Greece: Political Support for Vertical Corridor Persists Despite Underwhelming Commercial Interest

What happened: The fourth capacity auction for the Vertical Corridor gas route from Greece to Ukraine was declared fruitless, underlining the paucity of commercial interest for a relatively costly transport option.

Why it matters: The Vertical Corridor still enjoys political backing from the EU and the US as an investment in infrastructure intended to displace Russian gas in central and eastern Europe with LNG.

What happens next: Athens and its domestic energy players remain firmly behind the project, planning an LNG ecosystem that solidifies Greece’s geopolitical role as a regional energy hub.

Israel: Bennett Emerges as Top Opposition Leader, Hoping to Unseat Bibi

What happened: Naftali Bennett has begun openly meeting with other opposition party leaders to coordinate their positions ahead of the upcoming election campaign.

Why it matters: Opinion polls consistently show Bennett as the only opposition leader who can beat Netanyahu in a general election expected in October 2026, if not earlier.

What happens next: The highly fragmented opposition must decide on what party framework/s and leadership it will present to the public, but in our view, it is clear that Bennett is the man to beat to content with Netanyahu.

Malaysia: Petros-Petronas Slugfest Goes Public Ahead of Deadline to Settle

What happened: The Sarawak–Putrajaya energy tussle became a public spat again, with officials and pundits arguing over politically charged numbers.

Why it matters: The renewed PR fracas signals that talks are stuck — again — and both sides are trying to sway the court of public opinion before an actual court decides.

What happens next: Petronas and Petros have until 30 September to negotiate a settlement; otherwise, a judge will rule.

Russia: US Takes Fight to EU

What happened: US officials threatened new pressure on Russia, but only if the Europeans speed up their phase-out of Russian energy and use Trump’s preferred tools like tariffs.

Why it matters: EU-US divisions will open new sanctions loopholes that facilitate trade between Russia and its existing trading partners, like China, whose negotiating and pricing power will increase.

What happens next: The friction will test the US-EU trade framework agreed in July; upcoming US talks with China will limit further pressure on Russia.

South Africa: Parliament to Engage Environmental Groups, Oil and Gas Companies on Sector Challenges

What happened: Chairman of the Portfolio Committee on Mineral and Petroleum Resources Mikateko Mahlaule announced that his committee would engage with environmental groups and the oil and gas sector to find solutions to the issues delaying exploration progress.

Why it matters: This engagement will bring greater attention to the impacts of exploration delays and the potential benefits from offshore projects. However, it may also raise awareness of negative environmental impacts.

What happens next: The committee will hold public hearings on the issues, which will give all involved parties an opportunity to present their positions. Plus, one NGO is launching a study on the impact of oil spills on the environment, people and stakeholders that will likely feature in the engagement.

Suriname: Simons Offers Hope but Shows Hesitation

What happened: The new Simons administration faces internal turbulence and public backlash due to high-profile missteps and controversial appointments.

Why it matters: The early governance blunders raise doubts about institutional stability and the administration's capacity to deliver on promised reforms, increasing political and operational risks for investors.

What happens next: President Simons can restore credibility by following through on transparency commitments and managing coalition tensions.

United States: Supreme Court to Back Trump on Tariffs, Fed

What happened: The Supreme Court temporarily allowed DHS to continue broad ICE sweeps of alleged illegal immigrants, rather than being constrained to “reasonable suspicion” of immigration status.

Why it matters: While the case was just a stay and not a ruling, it suggests SCOTUS will not push back against the Trump administration's immigration policies.

What happens next: Under Chief Justice John Roberts, SCOTUS will give the Executive Branch tremendous leeway, likely allowing President Trump to enact tariffs and fire Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook — but maybe not Chair Jerome Powell.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Algeria Interim Prime Minister: Sifi Ghrieb

A wave of new investment deals signed in the final two days of the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) in Algiers arrived at an ideal moment for Sifi Ghrieb, the industry minister who is also in his second week as interim prime minister.

The deals include $950mn in new partnerships between the state-owned National Steelmaking Company (SNS) and Egyptian, Senegalese and Chinese firms. Algeria Chemical Specialties, Algeria Industrial Cement Group and Algerian Qatar Steel (all subsidiaries or joint ventures of the Industry Ministry) signed nearly $2bn in new sales contracts in the last days alone.

The timing bodes well for Ghrieb, who aims to further boost President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's estimation of him in hopes of retaining the premiership in a cabinet reshuffle expected by next month.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.