Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image shows a Italiana Petroli filling station for vessels at Fondamenta Sacca San Girolamo in Venice. Italiana Petroli's impending purchase by Azerbaijan's SOCAR is featured in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Algeria: Tebboune Cements Grip with Government Reshuffle

What happened: President Tebboune announced an expected government reshuffle, naming Sifi Ghrieb as PM, elevating like-minded loyalists and splitting the Energy Ministry in two.

Why it matters: The changes reflect the ascendance of a clique of former Interior Ministry officials whose fixation on control aligns with military leaders' mindset — but will be of little use in attracting foreign investment.

What happens next: The tweaks help cement Tebboune's vision of the state's role, while sharpening Mohamed Arkab's role as fundraiser-in-chief for the energy and mining sectors.

Argentina: Milei Softens Tone, Makes Concessions in Response to Electoral Blow

What happened: President Javier Milei presented his 2026 budget proposal, pledging commitment to fiscal surplus but conceding to some sensitive spending demands.

Why it matters: Since his recent electoral defeat in Buenos Aires province, Milei has been in crisis mode, trying to recalibrate his government's tone and content.

What happens next: The government will have to show in Q4, when the budget will be debated in Congress, that it is ready to engage with the opposition to get things done.

Azerbaijan: SOCAR Expands Mediterranean Reach with Italian Refining Deal

What happened: SOCAR reportedly signed an agreement to acquire Italiana Petroli for about $2.9bn.

Why it matters: The deal strengthens Azerbaijan’s foothold in Mediterranean refining and retail, linking upstream exports with downstream outlets and diversifying SOCAR’s cash flow beyond crude sales.

What happens next: To realize the acquisition's full value, SOCAR must secure Italian approval, meet supply and labor commitments, integrate assets and invest in cleaner fuels and modern retail.

Brazil: Freitas Shines After Bolsonaro’s Conviction

What happened: The Supreme Court convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and sentenced him to over 27 years in jail for trying to overturn his 2022 election loss.

Why it matters: Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio Freitas has publicly lobbied Congress to pass an amnesty bill on Bolsonaro’s behalf, but is working behind the scenes to build an electoral coalition that could elect him president in 2026.

What happens next: If Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and others adopt Freitas, he will become President Lula's most important opposition challenger.

Greece: US Cabinet Member Visits Athens; Short-Term Win Comes at a Price for Mitsotakis

What happened: Interior Secretary and White House National Energy Dominance Council Chair Doug Burgum became the first US cabinet-level official under this Trump presidency to visit Athens, which Greek officials view as a boost to the country’s geopolitical status.

Why it matters: The Mitsotakis government has been struggling to get Washington’s since Trump’s second inauguration, and the LNG agenda Burgum promoted was welcome continuity with previous efforts on the energy cooperation front.

What happens next: US endorsement will come at a price: LNG will inflate Greek consumers’ energy bills, while the high cost of living and economic competitiveness are the chief sources of dissatisfaction with the administration.

Guyana: Business As Usual Is a Double-Edged Sword

What happened: Ali 2.0’s first cabinet shows clear policy continuity and stability.

Why it matters: This PPP administration will pursue accelerated development but may lack the capacity to manage the president's grand ambitions.

What happens next: Ali and VP Jagdeo’s emphasis on loyalty over ability will limit their continued openness to oil and gas investors.

Iran: Economic Hangover of 12-Day War Raises Pressure on Khamenei

What happened: While the state has published little data, recent private studies are shedding light on the intertwined consequences of the June war and likely UN snapback sanctions.

Why it matters: The findings paint a dire picture, giving insiders ammunition to press the Supreme Leader for a course correction to prevent economic devastation.

What happens next: Khamenei will face more lobbying to dial back defiant rhetoric and open space for diplomatic solutions, but Iran’s options remain limited.

Iran: Sanctions Exposure Reaches Crypto Exchanges

What happened: OFAC sanctioned two Iranian nationals and front companies accused of using cryptocurrency to help the Iranian military skirt sanctions.

Why it matters: These designations extend the risk of Iran sanctions violations to crypto exchanges and counterparts and increase due diligence expectations.

What happens next: UN sanctions snapback looks more likely, even if economic and energy impacts are few. Lax US enforcement of Russia sanctions and expanded — China-linked — illicit networks will keep Iranian discounted oil flowing.

South Africa: Race to Improve Municipal Services Before 2026 Local Elections

What happened: The ANC leadership is reviewing the state of local government to stem the infrastructure and service delivery collapse ahead of the 2026 local elections.

Why it matters: A recent by-election in Soweto showed a big decline in support, raising the stakes for next year, the ANC leadership contest in 2027 and the national elections in 2029.

What happens next: Although the ruling party has little over a year to reverse the situation, the extent of the infrastructure failures, lack of resources and inadequate capacity mean the problems will continue unless the political leadership changes.

United States: US Business Investment May Cool Down After ICE Raid

What happened: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided a battery plant in Georgia and detained more than 300 South Korean workers, who have since returned to South Korea.

Why it matters: The incident has become a major scandal in the South Korean government, which has launched an investigation into human rights abuses by ICE, and has delayed the completion of the plant by two or three months.

What happens next: President Donald Trump said that he doesn’t want to “frighten off” companies from investing in the US, but the administration is largely unable to control the perception of the US as a safe place to do business, which may worsen if more such raids happen.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Brazil's Minister of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet
Simone Tebet told attendees at a seminar on judicial fiscal risks that the Supreme Court and the rest of the judiciary should be applauded for performing its constitutional role in countering former President Jair Bolsonaro’s attempted coup after he lost the 2022 presidential election.

Her remarks follow Bolsonaro’s conviction and his congressional allies’ efforts to pass an amnesty law that would include the former president and his co-conspirators.
Tebet has repeatedly demonstrated her loyalty to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, hoping to win his support for a senate bid in 2026.

She is already preparing the ground with a recent change in her official registration from her home state of Matto Grosso to Sao Paulo. Her agribusiness constituency in Matto Grosso opposed her participation in Lula’s campaign and administration. Sao Paulo, however, offers a more urban electorate that could reward her moderation and loyalty to Lula.

Complicating her path, though, is a push in Lula’s Workers Party (PT) for Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (also from Sao Paulo) to launch his own senate bid.
If Haddad does run, it would complicate the president’s coalition-building in a key state.

For now, Tebet will wait and see, hoping that Lula’s popularity continues to rise in the coming year and that she can ride his coattails to a senate seat.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.