Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

Country Insights Roundup

Canada: Major Projects Office's List Will Grow

What happened: With five projects already identified, PM Carney's Major Projects Office will soon have to deliver on its promise.

Why it matters: The MPO stands out because it's headquartered in Alberta, reports directly to the equivalent of the PM's office and is headed by a high-profile energy sector executive like Dawn Farrell.

What happens next: We expect Port of Churchill and the Ring of Fire to be the next projects on the MPO's list.

Cyprus: Christodoulides Finds No Takers to Replace Papanastasiou

What happened: With a cabinet reshuffle expected this month, President Christodoulides has been unable to find a replacement for George Papanastasiou as energy minister.

Why it matters: Papanastasiou has been at loggerheads with Christodoulides since taking office 2.5 years ago; it is no secret that he will be jettisoned as soon as the president can identify a suitable replacement.

What happens next: Christodoulides remains on the lookout for potential candidates; however, with key projects stalled and EU investigations ongoing, he is unlikely to find many takers — Papanastasiou may see out his full five-year term.

Greece: Athens-Nicosia Blame Game Relegates Subsea Cable Geopolitics to Subplot

What happened: In recent weeks, tensions have bubbled between Athens and Nicosia over the stalled GSI project, which aims to bring the two countries closer by linking their power grids.

Why it matters: The spat, ostensibly revolving around viability and financing, has added a layer of political complexity to a project on hold since 2024 due to Turkish threats.

What happens next: As potentially embarrassing as it may be for both governments, a commercial falling-out offers Greece the most politically acceptable opt-out.

Guyana: Strong US Support Boosts Security Posture

What happened: The military participated in President Ali's inauguration ceremony with a low-pass flyover of two fighter jets.

Why it matters: The rare gesture underscores the Trump administration's firm support for Guyana in the face of Venezuelan threats.

What happens next: US military muscle-flexing in the Caribbean is good news for investors in Guyana, as it will reduce the security risk associated with Maduro.

Indonesia: What Pertamina’s Import Monopoly Means for Prabowo’s Economic Agenda

What happened: Indonesia has faced fuel shortages at private retailers; the government’s solution is for them to source fuel only from Pertamina.

Why it matters: The fuel shortage has eroded public trust in the government's ability to manage fuel distribution and maintain product quality.

What happens next: IECs involved in retailing may depart Indonesia, consumers face higher fuel costs, and rent-seeking could shift from private traders to Pertamina insiders.

Kazakhstan: Trains, Energy and Uranium Put Tokayev on Trump’s Radar

What happened: President Tokayev’s US trip delivered 11 deals worth $5.2 bn, led by a $4.2 bn Wabtec locomotive order.

Why it matters: The package strengthens the Middle Corridor, deepens ties with US oil majors and Cameco and places Kazakhstan on Trump’s radar, accelerating deals despite risks from tariffs.

What happens next: Investors should advance proposals with US content and localization and expect Astana to balance China sensitivities.

Malaysia: RON95 Reform Success Will Depend on Implementation

What happened: After months of hesitation, the RON95 fuel subsidy rationalization finally ended blanket subsidies.

Why it matters: This isn’t the brave cut PM Anwar had pledged, making the reform a half-measure that blunts political backlash with marginal fiscal returns.

What happens next: The risk lies in implementation – smooth execution buys Anwar credit; glitches and leakages will turn it into another “meh” compromise.

Namibia: Clock is Ticking on Government’s Regulator Dilemma

What happened: Blurred lines between the Office of the Petroleum Commissioner and the new Upstream Petroleum Unit (UPU) have left regulation unclear and stalled license decisions.

Why it matters: Big discoveries are moving toward development, but Namibia lacks a clear referee to ensure transparency, oversight and public benefit.

What happens next: The government must choose: boost the Commissioner, empower the UPU or create a new independent regulator.

Russia: EU Reveals Proposed 19th Sanctions Package

What happened: The European Commission unveiled its 19th sanctions package on Russia, which includes more financial sanctions and proposes an earlier end to LNG imports. 

Why it matters: The EU move doubled down on its preferred tools of financial pressure on the shadow fleet and parallel trade rather than adopting US-preferred secondary tariffs.

What happens next: The Europeans are set to use more frozen Russian funds to support Ukraine and increase penalties for sanctions violations. The lack of US and EU coordination will present new loopholes to keep Russia’s economy surviving, if not thriving.

South Korea: US LNG Supply Drives Competitive Edge in Energy Security, Decarbonization and Trade

What happened: KOGAS signed 10-year contracts to import 3.3mn tons of US LNG annually on favorable terms without destination or resale restrictions.

Why it matters: This marks a strategic shift in South Korea’s LNG procurement approach, enabling flexible global LNG trading and lowering domestic supply costs; fuel switching from coal could also support decarbonization and CCS-linked economic planning.

What happens next: KOGAS will ramp up trading operations and infrastructure like the Dangjin base, potentially adjusting LNG's role in the 12th Power Plan.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Iraq Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani

Mohammed Shia al Sudani released Iraq Vision 2050: Towards Development and the Future, a plan developed by two US firms, consultancy McKinsey and engineering giant KBR.

The plan makes big claims that projects such as the Grand Faw Port and the Development Road project will create 1.5mn jobs in Iraq.

In our view, it is no coincidence that US firms got tapped to produce the report. Iraq's government is desperate to avoid sanctions, and Sudani is personally obsessed with getting US support for a second term in office.

It may be too late to sway the US to support Sudani, but a future prime minister will build on McKinsey's work and the Ministry of Planning/KBR joint office for mega-projects could add useful capacity.

Such work would also be a model for other industrial bodies, such as the State Company for Oil Projects.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.